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Crises gêmeas nos mercados emergentes: América Latina x Leste Asiático [Twin crises in emergent markets: Latin America and Eastern Asia]

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Author Info

  • Tito Belchior Silva Moreira

    ()
    (UCB)

  • Maurício Barata de Paula Pinto

    ()
    (UnB)

  • Geraldo da Silva e Souza

    ()
    (UnB)

Abstract

This article uses a crisis index based on an average of the variations in currency and financial crises indicators, referred to as "twin crises", adjusting them to the same volatility. Thus, the objective is to measure the degree of vulnerability to twin crises within a group of 19 countries in the context of the East Asian crisis. Based on the crisis index regarding data from 1996, the most vulnerable countries of the twin crises can be ordered and identified a year before the onset of the crises. East Asian countries, in contrast with Latin American countries, were identified as the most vulnerable to twin crises.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil) in its journal Nova Economia.

Volume (Year): 14 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 (September-December)
Pages: 161-186

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Handle: RePEc:nov:artigo:v:14:y:2004:i:3:p:161-186

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Related research

Keywords: Latin America; East Asian crisis; twin crises; currency and financial crises;

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References

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  1. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
  2. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 1999. "Banking and currency crises: how common are twins?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 99-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
  6. Velasco, Andres, 1987. "Financial crises and balance of payments crises : A simple model of the southern cone experience," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 263-283, October.
  7. World Bank, 2000. "World Development Indicators 2000," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13828, July.
  8. Morris Goldstein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 100.
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