Are All Banking Crises Alike? The Japanese Experience in International Comparison
AbstractThis paper examines episodes of banking sector distress for a large sample of developed and developing countries, highlighting the experience of Japan. By a host of criteria, Japan appeared to be in a stronger position than most countries at the onset of banking problems - low inflation, appreciating currency, balanced government budget, and large external surpluses. However, Japan followed a clear international boom-and-bust pattern in terms of real output growth, credit growth and stock price movements. We estimate a multivariate probit model that links the likelihood of banking problems to a set of macroeconomic variables and institutional characteristics. The model predicts a high probability of banking sector distress in Japan in the early 1990s. In particular the likelihood of an episode of banking distress rose in line with the sharp drop in asset prices, deepening recession and a "moral hazard' problem (financial liberalization combined with explicit deposit insurance). The Japanese case is also noteworthy by the long duration of the banking crisis, the length of the coincident recession and general malaise over the economy, the slow regulatory response, and the long delay in the commitment of public funds to re-capitalize the banking sector.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of the Japanese and International Economies.
Volume (Year): 13 (1999)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622903
Other versions of this item:
- Michael Hutchison & Kathleen McDill, 1999. "Are all banking crises alike? The Japanese experience in international comparison," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 99-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Hutchison, M. & McDill, K., 1998. "Are All Banking Crises Alike? The Japanese Experience in International Comparison," Papers 99-02, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
- Michael Hutchison & Kathleen McDill, 1999. "Are All Banking Crises Alike? The Japanese Experience in International Comparison," NBER Working Papers 7253, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
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