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Are all banking crises alike? The Japanese experience in international comparison

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Michael Hutchison
Kathleen McDill

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Abstract

This paper examines episodes of banking sector distress for a large sample of developed and developing countries, highlighting the experience of Japan. By a host of criteria, Japan appeared to be in a stronger position than most countries at the onset of banking problems - low inflation, appreciating currency, balanced government budget, and large external surpluses. However, Japan followed a clear international boom-and-bust pattern in terms of real output growth, credit growth and stock price movements. We estimate a multivariate probit model that links the likelihood of banking problems to a set of macroeconomic variables and institutional characteristics. The model predicts a high probability of banking sector distress in Japan in the early 1990s. In particular the likelihood of an episode of banking distress rose in line with the sharp drop in asset prices, deepening recession and a "moral hazard' problem (financial liberalization combined with explicit deposit insurance). The Japanese case is also noteworthy by the long duration of the banking crisis, the length of the coincident recession and general malaise over the economy, the slow regulatory response, and the long delay in the commitment of public funds to re-capitalize the banking sector.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Pacific Basin Working Paper Series with number 99-02.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpb:99-02

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Keywords: Financial crises - Japan

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Klingebiel, Daniela, 1996. "Bank insolvencies : cross-country experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1620, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises," NBER Working Papers 6370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1996. "Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Management: Tequila Lessons," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(3), pages 207-23, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Demirguc-Kent, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 1998. "Financial liberalization and financial fragility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1917, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Jacklin, Charles J & Bhattacharya, Sudipto, 1988. "Distinguishing Panics and Information-Based Bank Runs: Welfare and Policy Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 568-92, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Michael Hutchison, 1997. "Financial crises and bank supervision: new directions for Japan?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Dec 12. [Downloadable!]
  10. Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 3. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Laurence M. Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw & David H. Romer, 1989. "The New Keynesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off," NBER Reprints 1111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1996. "Capital flows and macroeconomic management: tequila lessons," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 96-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Charles Goodhart & Lavan Mahadeva & John Spicer, 2003. "Monetary policy's effects during the financial crises in Brazil and Korea," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 55-79. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ugo Albertazzi & Leonardo Gambacorta, 2006. "Bank Profitability and Taxation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 364, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Michael Hutchison & Ilan Noy, 2002. "How bad are twins? output costs of currency and banking crises," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 02-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. E. P. Davis, 2001. "Multiple Avenues of Intermediation, Corporate Finance and Financial Stability," IMF Working Papers 01/115, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 1999. "Banking and currency crises; how common are twins?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2003. "Deflation, Credit and Asset Prices," Working Papers 132003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  7. Lynn Elaine Browne, 2001. "Does Japan offer any lessons for the United States?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 3-18. [Downloadable!]
  8. Alejandro Gaytán & Christian A. Johnson, 2002. "A Review of the Literature on Early Warning Systems for Banking Crises," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 183, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  9. Michael M. Hutchison & Ilan Noy & Lidan Wang, 2007. "Fiscal and Monetary Policies and the Cost of Sudden Stops," Working Papers 200724, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 2002. "Capital controls and exchange rate instability in developing economies," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 00-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Michael M. Hutchison, . "European Banking Distress and EMU: Institutional and Macroeconomic Risks," EPRU Working Paper Series 00-04, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Alberto Jaramillo & Adriana Ángel Jiménez & Andrea Restrepo Ramírez & Ana Consuelo Serrano, 2002. "Sector bancario y coyuntura económica. El caso colombiano 1990-2000," Grupo de estudios en economía y empresa 003921, EAFIT-GRUPO DE ESTUDIOS EN ECONOMIA Y EMPRESA (GEE). [Downloadable!]
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