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A Review of the Literature on Early Warning Systems for Banking Crises

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Author Info
Alejandro Gaytán
Christian A. Johnson

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Abstract

This paper presents a review of alternative methodologies for early detection of banking distress. The methodologies proposed are aimed to the early identification of financial distress for countries without an important recent history of bank failure, but facing an unstable international environment. We evaluate several indicators and methodologies to measure financial distress such as qualitative indicators, the signal extraction approach, limited dependent estimation and finally duration models.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 183.

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Date of creation: Oct 2002
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:183

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kolari, James & Glennon, Dennis & Shin, Hwan & Caputo, Michele, 2002. "Predicting large US commercial bank failures," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 361-387. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1999. "Currency and Banking Crises - The Early Warnings of Distress," IMF Working Papers 99/178, International Monetary Fund.
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  3. Hali J. Edison, 2000. "Do indicators of financial crises work? an evaluation of an early warning system," International Finance Discussion Papers 675, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Michael Hutchison & Kathleen McDill, 1999. "Are All Banking Crises Alike? The Japanese Experience in International Comparison," NBER Working Papers 7253, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises," NBER Working Papers 6370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Catherine A. Pattillo & Andrew Berg, 1998. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Working Papers 98/154, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Marcelo Dabós & Walter Sosa Escudero, 2000. "Explaining and Predicting Bank Failure in Argentina Using Duration Models," Working Papers 26, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Apr 2000. [Downloadable!]
  8. Eduardo Borensztein & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Catherine A. Pattillo & Andrew Berg, 2000. "Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems," IMF Occasional Papers 186, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Gorton, Gary, 1988. "Banking Panics and Business Cycles," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 751-81, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Patrick Honohan, 1997. "Banking system failures in developing and transition countries: Diagnosis and predictions," BIS Working Papers 39, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  11. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  12. Demirguc, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2000. "Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility: A Multivariate Logit Approach," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 287-307, May. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1989. "Scoring the Leading Indicators," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 369-91, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Demirguc-Kent, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 1998. "Financial liberalization and financial fragility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1917, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Brenda González-Hermosillo, 1999. "Determinants of Ex-Ante Banking System Distress: A Macro-Micro Empirical Exploration of Some Recent Episodes," IMF Working Papers 99/33, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Liliana Rojas-Suarez, 2001. "Rating Banks in Emerging Markets: What Credit Rating Agencies Should Learn from Financial Indicators," Peterson Institute Working Paper Series WP01-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics. [Downloadable!]
  17. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Brenda González-Hermosillo, 1996. "Banking Sector Fragility and Systemic Sources of Fragility," IMF Working Papers 96/12, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Christian A. Johnson, 2005. "Modelos de alerta temprana para pronosticar crisis bancarias: desde la extracción de señales a las redes neuronales," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Economics Department, vol. 20(1), pages 95-121, June. [Downloadable!]
  2. Fernando Pineda G. & Hernán Piñeros G., . "El indicador financiero único como mecanismo de alerta temprana: una nueva versión," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 039, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  3. Paul Cashin & Rupa Duttagupta, 2008. "The Anatomy of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 08/93, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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