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Anatomy of banking crises in developing and emerging market countries

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  • Duttagupta, Rupa
  • Cashin, Paul

Abstract

This paper uses a Binary Classification Tree (BCT) model to analyze banking crises in 50 emerging market and developing countries during 1990-2005. The BCT model identifies three conditions (and the specific threshold of the key indictors) at which the vulnerability to banking crisis increases--(i) very high inflation, (ii) highly dollarized bank deposits combined with nominal depreciation or low bank liquidity, and (iii) low bank profitability--which highlight that foreign currency risk, poor financial soundness, and macroeconomic instability are important drivers of banking crises. The results also emphasize the importance of conditional thresholds in triggering crises, in that banking crises are underlined by a combination of vulnerabilities--or a sequence of (non-linear) conditions--rather than the deterioration of a unique factor.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 30 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 354-376

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:30:y:2011:i:2:p:354-376

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

Related research

Keywords: Banking crises Binary classification tree Exchange rate Dollarization;

References

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  1. Barry Eichengreen & Carlos Arteta, 2001. "Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence," Macroeconomics 0012012, EconWPA.
  2. Paola Bongini & Stijn Claessens & Giovanni Ferri, 2001. "The Political Economy of Distress in East Asian Financial Institutions," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 5-25, February.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
  5. John Boyd & Bruce Champ, 2003. "Inflation and financial market performance: what have we learned in the last ten years," Working Paper 0317, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  6. Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2005. "Rules of Thumb for Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 05/42, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises," NBER Working Papers 6370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. De Nicolo, Gianni & Honohan, Patrick & Ize, Alain, 2003. "Dollarization of the banking system : good or bad?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3116, The World Bank.
  9. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2005. "Cross-country empirical studies of systemic bank distress : a survey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3719, The World Bank.
  10. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, 2004. "FINANCIAL DOLLARIZATION: Evaluating the consequences," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 184, Econometric Society.
  11. Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Klingebiel, Daniela, 1996. "Bank insolvencies : cross-country experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1620, The World Bank.
  12. Carlos O. Arteta, 2003. "Are financially dollarized countries more prone to costly crises?," International Finance Discussion Papers 763, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Honohan, Patrick & Klingebiel, Daniela, 2000. "Controlling the fiscal costs of banking crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2441, The World Bank.
  14. Marcos Chamon & Paolo Manasse & Alessandro Prati, 2007. "Can We Predict the Next Capital Account Crisis?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(2), pages 270-305, June.
  15. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund.
  16. repec:fth:inadeb:318 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Managing Macroeconomic Crises," NBER Working Papers 10907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Patrick Honohan, 1997. "Banking system failures in developing and transition countries: Diagnosis and predictions," BIS Working Papers 39, Bank for International Settlements.
  19. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1999. "Currency and Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 99/178, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Swart R. Ghosh & Atish R. Ghosh, 2002. "Structural Vulnerability and Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 02/9, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Gianni De Nicoló & Patrick Honohan & Alain Ize, 2003. "Dollarization of the Banking System," IMF Working Papers 03/146, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Purificacion Parrado-Martinez & Antonio Parta Ureña & Pilar Gomez Fernandez-Aguado, 2014. "Usefulness of Financial Soundness Indicators for risk assessment: The case of EU member countries," Working Papers 14.01, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Financial Economics and Accounting (former Department of Business Administration).
  2. Savona, Roberto, 2014. "Hedge fund systemic risk signals," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 236(1), pages 282-291.
  3. Joshua Aizenman & Ilan Noy, 2012. "Macroeconomic Adjustment and the History of Crises in Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 18527, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Joshua Aizenman & Hiro Ito, 2013. "Living with the Trilemma Constraint: Relative Trilemma Policy Divergence, Crises, and Output Losses for Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 19448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Salvador Marín Hernández & Ester Gras Gil & Marcos Antón Renart, 2011. "Financial information and restructuring of spanish savings banks in a context of crisis. Changes in the regulation; content and evolution of FROB," CIRIEC-España, revista de economía pública, social y cooperativa, CIRIEC-España, issue 73, pages 99-126, October.
  6. Luca Papi Author-Name-First Luca & Andrea F. Presbitero & Alberto Zazzaro, 2013. "IMF Lending and Banking Crises," Working Papers CASMEF 1304, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
  7. P. Manasse & R. Savona & M. Vezzoli, 2013. "Rules of Thumb for Banking Crises in Emerging Markets," Working Papers wp872, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  8. E. Davis & Dilruba Karim & Iana Liadze, 2011. "Should multivariate early warning systems for banking crises pool across regions?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 147(4), pages 693-716, November.
  9. Makram El-Shagi & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2012. "Qual VAR Revisited: Good Forecast, Bad Story," IWH Discussion Papers 12, Halle Institute for Economic Research.

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