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Money Market Pressure and the Determinants of Banking Crises

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  • JÜRGEN VON HAGEN
  • TAI-KUANG HO

Abstract

This article develops an index of money market pressure to identify banking crises. We define banking crises as periods in which there is excessive demand for liquidity in the money market. We begin with the theoretical foundation of this new method. With the newly defined crisis episodes, we examine the determinants of banking crises using data complied from 47 countries. We find that slowdown of real GDP, lower real interest rates, extremely high inflation, large fiscal deficits, and over-valued exchange rates tend to precede banking crises. The effects of monetary base growth on the probability of banking crises are negligible. Copyright 2007 The Ohio State University.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 39 (2007)
Issue (Month): 5 (08)
Pages: 1037-1066

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:39:y:2007:i:5:p:1037-1066

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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  1. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica & Gupta, Poonam, 2006. "Inside the crisis: An empirical analysis of banking systems in distress," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 702-718, August.
  2. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 1999. "Does deposit insurance increase banking system stability ? An empirical investigation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2247, The World Bank.
  3. Daniel C. Hardy & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1999. "Determinants and Leading Indicators of Banking Crises: Further Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1.
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  7. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
  8. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann, 1996. "The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context," Research Department Publications 4026, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
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  12. Morris Goldstein, 1998. "The Asian Financial Crisis," Policy Briefs PB98-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  13. Patrick Honohan, 1997. "Banking system failures in developing and transition countries: Diagnosis and predictions," BIS Working Papers 39, Bank for International Settlements.
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  15. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
  16. Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Klingebiel, Daniela, 1996. "Bank insolvencies : cross-country experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1620, The World Bank.
  17. Furfine, Craig, 2002. "The interbank market during a crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 809-820, May.
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  22. Poonam Gupta & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 2000. "Inside the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 00/156, International Monetary Fund.
  23. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04.
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