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Determinants and Leading Indicators of Banking Crises: Further Evidence

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  • Daniel C. Hardy

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Ceyla Pazarbasioglu

    (International Monetary Fund)

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    Abstract

    This paper examines episodes of banking system distress and crisis in a large sample of countries to identify which macroeconomic and financial variables can be useful leading indicators. The best warning signs of the recent Asian crises were proxies for the vulnerability of the banking and corporate sector. Full-blown banking crises are shown to be associated more with external developments, and domestic variables are the main leading indicators of severe but contained banking distress. Copyright 1999, International Monetary Fund

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal IMF Staff Papers.

    Volume (Year): 46 (1999)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 1

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    Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:46:y:1999:i:3:p:1

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    1. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises," NBER Working Papers 6370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    3. Cole, Rebel A. & Gunther, Jeffery W., 1995. "Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1073-1089, September.
    4. Brenda González-Hermosillo & Ceyla Pazarbaşioğlu & Robert Billings, 1997. "Determinants of Banking System Fragility: A Case Study of Mexico," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(3), pages 295-314, September.
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