Early warning systems of financial crises: implementation of a currency crisis model for Uganda
AbstractThe objective of this paper is to implement a prototype of a currency crisis model as part of an early warning system framework for Uganda. The financial systems of developing countries like Uganda are especially vulnerable and therefore robust instruments to predict crises are needed. Our model is based on the signals approach developed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998) and Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999). The basic idea of the signals approach is to monitor several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behaviour in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator crosses a threshold, then it is said to issue a signal that a currency crisis may occur within a given period. We implemented this signals approach for Uganda. One of the main challenges in this connection is that Uganda during the analyzed periods had no currency crisis. Therefore, we modified the model in a way that it estimates some of the performance measures based on empirical studies to obtain usable results. The outcomes of our calculations performed well and were economically validated. --
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Frankfurt School of Finance and Management in its series Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series with number 59.
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Currency crises; Uganda; early warning systems; balance of payment crises; crisis prediction; vulnerability indicators; signals approach;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002.
"Towards a new early warning system of financial crises,"
Working Paper Series
0145, European Central Bank.
- Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
- Fratzscher, Marcel & Matthieu Bussiere, 2003. "Towards A New Early Warning System of Financial Crises," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 81, Royal Economic Society.
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1987.
"Scoring the leading indicators,"
Special Studies Papers
206, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000.
"Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
- Paul Collier & Jan Willem Gunning, 1997.
"Explaining African economic performance,"
CSAE Working Paper Series
1997-02.2, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999.
"The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ritva Reinikka & Paul Collier, 2001. "Uganda's Recovery : The Role of Farms, Firms, and Government," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13850, October.
- Angus Deaton, 1999.
"Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 23-40, Summer.
- Abdul Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems," IMF Working Papers 03/32, International Monetary Fund.
- Bleaney, Michael F & Greenaway, David, 1993. "Long-Run Trends in the Relative Price of Primary Commodities and in the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 349-63, July.
- Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1999. "Currency and Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 99/178, International Monetary Fund.
- Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 2002.
"A Model of Commodity Prices after Sir Arthur Lewis,"
2002-19, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 2003. "A model of commodity prices after Sir Arthur Lewis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 289-310, August.
- Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 2002. "A model of commodity prices after Sir Arthur Lewis," Working Papers 201, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
- Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998.
"Leading Indicators of Currency Crises,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
- Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
- Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
- Biswa N. Bhattacharyay, 2003. "Towards a Macro-Prudential Leading Indicators Framework for Monitoring Financial Vulnerability," CESifo Working Paper Series 1015, CESifo Group Munich.
- Morris Goldstein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 100.
- Stern, Nicholas, 1989. "The Economics of Development: A Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 597-685, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.