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Stability periods between financial crises: The role of macroeconomic fundamentals and crises management policies

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Abstract

The aim of this paper is to identify which factors explain why some countries are more prone to enjoy long durations of stability, while others experience crises in shorter intervals. To this end, we analyze the duration of stability periods between currency, debt, and banking crises from 1980 to 2008. We find that durations of tranquility between currency and debt crises are bimodally distributed, making conventional econometric models unsuitable. Therefore, we introduce an innovative econometric strategy, the Finite Mixture Model. Real and financial variables are found to have high predictive power for the spell of stability between currency crises, while for debt crises, the real interest rate is observed to be the best predictor. The time between the occurrence of systemic financial crises is prolonged through large-scale government interventions and IMF aid programs, while recapitalization turns out to have a negative impact.

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Paper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne in its series Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne with number 11064.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2011
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Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:11064

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Keywords: Financial crises; finite mixture model; duration; bimodality.;

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Cited by:
  1. Kapp, Daniel & Vega, Marco, 2012. "The Real Output Costs of Financial Crisis: A Loss Distribution Approach," Working Papers 2012-013, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  2. Daniel Kapp & Marco Vega, 2012. "Real Output Costs of Financial Crises: a Loss Distribution Approach," Documentos de Trabajo 2012-332, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
  3. Kapp, Daniel & Vega, Marco, 2012. "Real output costs of financial crises: a loss distribution approach," MPRA Paper 35706, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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