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Real output costs of financial crises: a loss distribution approach

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  • Kapp, Daniel
  • Vega, Marco

Abstract

The adverse effects of financial crises in terms of output losses or output growth below its potential can be treated like losses from catastrophic events which have a low likelihood but a large impact in the event that they occur. We therefore analyze GDP losses in terms of frequency (number of loss events per period) and severity (loss per occurrence). Crises' frequency, severity, and the associated global output losses over periods of five years are identified on the basis of Laeven and Valencia(2008). Applying the Loss Distribution Approach used in insurance and operational risk theory and practice, we estimate a multi-country aggregate GDP loss distribution and thus approximate the conditional losses in the event of financial crises. The analysis of losses produced in the paper suggests that the LDA approach is a useful tool in discussions about the existence and capital requirements of a potential insurance against the risk of financial crises at the aggregate level.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 35706.

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Date of creation: Jan 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35706

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Keywords: Financial Crisis; Severity; Frequency; LDA;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Boonman, Tjeerd M., 2013. "Sovereign defaults, business cycles and economic growth in Latin America, 1870-2012," Research Report 13010-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  2. Tolga Umut Kuzubas & Burak Saltoglu & Can Sever, 2014. "Systemic Risk and Heterogeneous Leverage in Banking Network: Implications for Banking Regulation," Working Papers, Bogazici University, Department of Economics 2014/01, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
  3. Joshua Aizenman & Hiro Ito, 2013. "Living with the Trilemma Constraint: Relative Trilemma Policy Divergence, Crises, and Output Losses for Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 19448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Sever, Can, 2014. "Systemic Liquidity Crisis with Dynamic Haircuts," MPRA Paper 55602, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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