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Recovery and Sustainability in East Asia

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  • Yung Chul Park
  • Jong-Wha Lee

Abstract

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic adjustment from the crisis in East Asia in a broad international prospective. The stylized pattern from the previous 160 currency crisis episodes over the period from 1970 to 1995 shows a V-type adjustment of real GDP growth in the years prior to and following a crisis. The adjustment shows a much sharper V-type in the crisis episodes with the IMF program, compared to those without. Cross-country regressions show that depreciation of real exchange rate, expansionary macroeconomic policies and favorable global environments are critical for the speedy post-crisis recovery. In this sense, the East Asian process of adjustment is not much different from the stylized pattern from the previous currency crisis episodes. However, the degree of initial contraction and following recovery has been far greater in East Asia than what the cross-country evidence predicts. This paper argues that the sharper adjustment pattern in East Asia is attributed to the severe liquidity crisis that was triggered by investor's panic and then amplified by the weak corporate and bank balance sheet. We find no evidence for a direct impact of a currency crisis on long-run growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8373.

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Date of creation: Jul 2001
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Publication status: published as Yung Chul Park, Jong-Wha Lee. "Recovery and Sustainability in East Asia," in Michael P. Dooley and Jeffrey A. Frankel, editors, "Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets" University of Chicago Press (2003)
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8373

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  1. Ratna Sahay & Deepak Mishra & Poonam Gupta, 2003. "Output Response to Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/230, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Branimir Jovanovic, 2012. "How Policy Actions Affect Short-term Post-crisis Recovery?," CEIS Research Paper 253, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 05 Oct 2012.
  2. Siegel, Jordan, 2005. "Can foreign firms bond themselves effectively by renting U.S. securities laws?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 319-359, February.
  3. Ricardo Mora & Georges Siotis, 2000. "External Factors in Emerging Market Recoveries: An Empirical Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1415, Econometric Society.
  4. Lin, T. -C., 2003. "Education, technical progress, and economic growth: the case of Taiwan," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 213-220, April.
  5. Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Economic Growth in East Asia Before and After the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 8330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Komarek, Lubos & Melecky, Martin, 2005. "Currency Crises, Current Account Reversals and Growth : The Compounded Effect for Emerging Markets," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 735, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  7. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2002. "IMF Programs: Who is Chosen and What Are the Effects?," NBER Working Papers 8951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Saubhik Deb, 2006. "Trade First and Trade Fast: A Duration Analysis of Recovery from Currency Crisis," Departmental Working Papers 200607, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  9. Doowon Lee, 2006. "The Korean Economy in Transition: In Search for a New Model," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 207-230.
  10. Spiros Bougheas & Hosung Lim & Simona Mateut & Paul Mizen & Cihan Yalcin, . "Lessons from the Asian Crisis: An Open Economy Credit Channel Model where Export Status Matters," Discussion Papers 12/16, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  11. Inklaar, Robert & Yang, Jing, 2012. "The impact of financial crises and tolerance for uncertainty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 466-480.
  12. Kohsaka, Akira, 2004. "A fundamental scope for regional financial cooperation in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 911-937, October.
  13. Joyce, Joseph P. & Nabar, Malhar, 2009. "Sudden stops, banking crises and investment collapses in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 314-322, November.
  14. Pritha Mitra, 2006. "Post-Crisis Recovery: When Does Increased Fiscal Discipline Work?," IMF Working Papers 06/219, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Claessens,Constantijn A. & Klingebiel, Daniela & Laeven, Luc, 2004. "Resolving systemic financial crisis : policies and institutions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3377, The World Bank.
  16. Hong, Kiseok & Lee, Jong-Wha & Lee, Young Soo, 2007. "Investment by Korean conglomerates before and after the crisis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 347-373, August.
  17. Jinyoung Hwang & Neville Nien-Heui Jiang & Ping Wang, 2002. "Financial Collusion and Over-Lending," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0229, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics, revised Oct 2003.
  18. Pasquariello, Paolo, 2008. "The anatomy of financial crises: Evidence from the emerging ADR market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 193-207, December.

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