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Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints

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This paper presents a simple model of currency crises which is driven by the interplay between the credit constraints of private domestic firms and the existence of nominal price rigidities. The possibility of multiple equilibria, including a 'currency crisis' equilibrium with low output and a depreciated domestic currency, results from the following mechanism: if nominal prices are 'sticky', a currency depreciation leads to an increase in the foreign cur- rency debt repayment obligations of firms, and thus to a fall in their profits; this reduces firms 'borrowing capacity and therefore investment and output in a credit-constrained economy, which in turn reduces the demand for the domestic currency and leads to a depreciation. We examine the impact of various shocks, including productivity, fiscal, or expectiational shocks. We then analyze the optimal monetary policy to prevent or solve currency crises. We also argue that currency crises can occur both under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes as the primary source of crises is the deteriorating balance sheet of private firms.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee in its series Working Papers with number 00.07.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2000
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Handle: RePEc:szg:worpap:0007

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  1. Philippe AGHION & Philippe BACCHETTA & Abhijit BANERJEE, 1999. "A Simple Model of Monetary Policy and Currency Crises," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 9914, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  2. Engel, Charles, 1993. "Real exchange rates and relative prices : An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 35-50, August.
  3. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
  4. Chang, R. & Velasco, A., 1999. "Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy," Working Papers 99-14, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  5. Ilan Goldfajn & Taimur Baig, 1999. "Monetary policy in the aftermath of currency crisis: the case of Asia," Textos para discussão 399, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  6. Ilan Goldfajn & Poonam Gupta, 1999. "Does Monetary Policy Stabilize the Exchange Rate Following a Currency Crisis?," IMF Working Papers 99/42, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Global Financial Instability: Framework, Events, Issues," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 3-20, Fall.
  8. Piketty, Thomas & Banerjee, Abhijit & Aghion, Philippe, 1997. "Dualism and macroeconomic volatility," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9720, CEPREMAP.
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  14. Bensaid, Bernard & Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "The instability of fixed exchange rate systems when raising the nominal interest rate is costly," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1461-1478, August.
  15. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
  16. Bohn, Henning, 1990. "A positive theory of foreign currency debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 273-292, November.
  17. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  18. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
  19. Jeanne, Olivier, 2000. "Foreign currency debt and the global financial architecture," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(4-6), pages 719-727, May.
  20. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  21. E Falcetti & S Milner, 1999. "The Currency Denomination of Public Debt and the Choice of the Monetary Regime," CEP Discussion Papers dp0427, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  22. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Philippe Bacchetta, 2000. "Monetary Policy with Foreign Currency Debt," Working Papers 00.03, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
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  1. Links for 2007-10-08 [del.icio.us]
    by (author unknown) in alpha.sources.cv on 2007-10-09 05:00:00
  2. Of Economic Growth and Currency Crises ...
    by CV in alpha.sources.cv on 2007-10-08 19:20:37
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