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Sudden Stops and the Mexican Wave: Currency Crises, Capital Flow Reversals and Output Loss in Emerging Markets

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Michael M. Hutchison
Ilan Noy

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Abstract

Sudden Stops are the simultaneous occurence of a currency/balance of payments crisis with a reversal in capital flows (Calvo, 1998). We investigate the output effects of financial crises in emerging markets, focusing on whether sudden-stop crises are a unique phenomenon and whether they entail an especially large and abrupt pattern of output collapse (a "Mexican wave"). Despite an emerging theoretical literature on Sudden Stops, empirical work to date has not precisely identified their occurences nor measured their subsequent output effects in broad samples. Analysis of Sudden Stops may provide the key to understanding why some currency/balance of payments crises entail very large output losses, while others are frequently followed by expansions. Using a panel data set over the 1975-97 period and covering 24 emerging-market economies, we distinguish between the output effects of currency crises, capital inflow reversals, and sudden-stop crises. We find that sudden-stop crises have a large negative, but short-lived, impact on output growth over and above that found with currency crises. A currency crisis typically reduces output by about 2-3 percent, while a Sudden Stop reduces output by and additional 6-8 percent in the year of the crisis. The cumulative output los of a Sudden Stop is even larger, around 13-15 percent over a three-year period. Out model estimates correspond closely to the output dynamics of the "Mexican wave" (such as seen in Mexico in 1995, Turkey in 1994 and elsewhere), and out-of-sample predictions of the model explain the sudden (and seemingly unexpected) collapse in output associated with the 1997-98 Asian Crisis. The empirical results are robust to alternative model specifications, lag structures and using estimation procedures (IV and GMM) that correct for bias associated with simultaneity and estimation of dynamic panel models with country-specific effect.

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Paper provided by Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series EPRU Working Paper Series with number 02-12.

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sula, Ozan, 2006. "Surges and Sudden Stops of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 383, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Michael M. Hutchison & Ilan Noy & Lidan Wang, 2007. "Fiscal and Monetary Policies and the Cost of Sudden Stops," Working Papers 200724, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Rodrik, Dani, 2006. "The Social Cost of Foreign Exchange Reserves," CEPR Discussion Papers 5483, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Hostland, Doug & Karam, Philippe, 2006. "Assessing debt sustainability in emerging market economies using stochastic simulation methods," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3821, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. David Hofman & Ruben Atoyan & Dimitri Tzanninis & Mauro Mecagni, 2007. "The Duration of Capital Account Crises--An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 07/258, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Törbjörn I. Becker & Paolo Mauro, 2006. "Output Drops and the Shocks That Matter," IMF Working Papers 06/172, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Sula, Ozan & Willett, Thomas D., 2006. "Reversibility of Different Types of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 384, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2006. "Managing New-Style Currency Crises: The Swan Diagram Approach Revisited," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0517, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE. [Downloadable!]
  9. David Fernando López Angarita, 2006. "Nivel de reservas internacionales y riesgo cambiario en Colombia," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 8(15), pages 117-159, July-Dece. [Downloadable!]
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