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Economic Growth in East Asia Before and After the Financial Crisis

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  • Robert J. Barro

Abstract

In 1997-98, five east Asian countries -- Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand -- experienced sharp currency and banking crises. The contraction of real GDP was severe in relation to the previous history and in comparison with five east Asian countries that were less affected by the financial crisis. Recoveries in the five crisis countries in 1999-2000 were strong in most cases, but it is unclear whether the pre-crisis growth paths will be reattained. Indications for permanently depressed prospects come from the sharp reductions in investment ratios, which have recovered only slightly, and the lowered stock-market prices. A panel analysis for a broad group of economies shows that a combined currency and banking crisis typically reduces economic growth over a five-year period by 2% per year, compared with 3% per year for the 1997-98 crisis in east Asia. The broader analysis found no evidence that financial crises had effects on growth that persisted beyond a five-year period.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8330.

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Date of creation: Jun 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8330

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  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522543, November.
  3. Yung Chul Park & Jong-Wha Lee, 2003. "Recovery and Sustainability in East Asia," NBER Chapters, in: Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 275-320 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1997. "The Determinants of Banking Crises - Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/106, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 1999. "Banking and currency crises; how common are twins?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
  6. Barro, Robert J, 2000. " Inequality and Growth in a Panel of Countries," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 5-32, March.
  7. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Klingebiel, Daniela, 1996. "Bank insolvencies : cross-country experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1620, The World Bank.
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