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Economic Growth in East Asia Before and After the Financial Crisis

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Robert J. Barro

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Abstract

In 1997-98, five east Asian countries -- Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand -- experienced sharp currency and banking crises. The contraction of real GDP was severe in relation to the previous history and in comparison with five east Asian countries that were less affected by the financial crisis. Recoveries in the five crisis countries in 1999-2000 were strong in most cases, but it is unclear whether the pre-crisis growth paths will be reattained. Indications for permanently depressed prospects come from the sharp reductions in investment ratios, which have recovered only slightly, and the lowered stock-market prices. A panel analysis for a broad group of economies shows that a combined currency and banking crisis typically reduces economic growth over a five-year period by 2% per year, compared with 3% per year for the 1997-98 crisis in east Asia. The broader analysis found no evidence that financial crises had effects on growth that persisted beyond a five-year period.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8330.

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Date of creation: Jun 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8330

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O4 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
O1 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Barro, Robert J, 2000. " Inequality and Growth in a Panel of Countries," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 5-32, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Klingebiel, Daniela, 1996. "Bank insolvencies : cross-country experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1620, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Enrica Detragiache & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, 1997. "The Determinants of Banking Crises - Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/106, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Robert J. Barro, 1996. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," NBER Working Papers 5698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises," NBER Working Papers 6370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 1999. "Banking and currency crises; how common are twins?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Yung Chul Park & Jong-Wha Lee, 2001. "Recovery and Sustainability in East Asia," NBER Working Papers 8373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bonfiglioli, Alessandra & Mendicino, Caterina, 2004. "Financial Liberalization, Banking Crises and Growth: Assessing the Links," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 567, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jose De Gregorio & Jong-Wha Lee, 2003. "Growth and Adjustment in East Asia and Latin America," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 245, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  3. Wink Joosten, 2004. "The Asian Financial Crisis in Retrospect: What Happened? What Can We Conclude?," CPB Memoranda 87, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Federico Sturzenegger & Punan Chuham, 2003. "Default`s in the 1990`s: What have we learned?"," Business School Working Papers seis, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
  5. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2003. "Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis?," IMF Working Papers 03/48, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Katarina Keller, 2006. "Education Expansion, Expenditures per Student and the Effects on Growth in Asia," Global Economic Review, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 21-42, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Michael Hutchison & Ilan Noy, 2004. "Sudden Stops and the Mexican Wave: Currency Crises, Capital Flow Reversals and Output Loss in Emerging Markets," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series 1035, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Javier Reyes & Giorgio Fagiolo & Stefano Schiavo, 2008. "Using a complex weighted-network approach to assess the evolution of international economic integration: The cases of East Asia and Latin America," LEM Papers Series 2008/10, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  9. Michael M. Hutchison & Ilan Neuberger, . "How Bad Are Twins? Output Costs of Currency and Banking Crises," EPRU Working Paper Series 02-09, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Michael M. Hutchison & Ilan Noy & Lidan Wang, 2007. "Fiscal and Monetary Policies and the Cost of Sudden Stops," Working Papers 200724, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2002. "IMF Programs: Who is Chosen and What Are the Effects?," NBER Working Papers 8951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Javier Reyes & Stefano Schiavo & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2007. "Using Complex Network Analysis to Assess the Evolution of International Economic Integration: The cases of East Asia and Latin America," LEM Papers Series 2007/25, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  13. Komarek, Lubos & Komarkova, Zlatuse & Melecky, Martin, 2005. "Current Account Reversals and Growth: The Direct Effect Central and Eastern Europe 1923-2000," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 736, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Alessandra Bonfiglioli & Caterina Mendicino, 2004. "Financial Liberalization, Bank Crises and Growth: Assessing the Links," Economics Working Papers 946, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Chancharat,Surachai & Valadkhani, Abbas, 2007. "An Empirical Analysis of the Thai and Major International Stock Markets," Economics Working Papers wp07-13, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  16. Jinyoung Hwang & Neville Nien-Heui Jiang & Ping Wang, 2002. "Financial Collusion and Over-Lending," Working Papers 0229, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University, revised Oct 2003. [Downloadable!]
  17. Marco Antônio F. de H. Cavalcanti & Christian Vonbun, 2007. "Reservas internacionais ótimas para o Brasil: uma análise simples de custo-benefício para o período 1999-2007," Discussion Papers 1315, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA. [Downloadable!]
  18. Ianchovichina, Elena & Kacker, Pooja, 2005. "Growth trends in the developing world : country forecasts and determinants," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3775, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  19. Komarek, Lubos & Melecky, Martin, 2005. "Currency Crises, Current Account Reversals and Growth : The Compounded Effect for Emerging Markets," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 735, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  20. Serwa, Dobromił, 2007. "Larger crises cost more: impact of banking sector instability on output growth," MPRA Paper 5101, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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