This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Sebastian Edwards

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

In this paper I analyze the anatomy of current account adjustments in the world economy during the last three decades. The main findings may be summarized as follows: (a) Major reversals in current account deficits have tended to be associated to sudden stops' of capital inflows. (b) The probability of a country experiencing a reversal is captured by a small number of variables that include the (lagged) current account to GDP ratio, the external debt to GDP ratio, the level of international reserves, domestic credit creation, and debt services. (c) Current account reversals have had a negative effect on real growth that goes beyond their direct effect on investments. (d) There is persuasive evidence indicating that the negative effect of current account reversals on growth will depend on the country's degree of openness. More open countries will suffer less in terms of lower growth than countries with a lower degree of openness. (e) I was unable to find evidence supporting the hypothesis that countries with a higher degree of dollarization are more severely affected by current account reversals than countries with a lower degree of dollarization. And, (f) the empirical analysis suggests that countries with more flexible exchange rate regimes are able to accommodate the shocks stemming from a reversal better than countries with more rigid exchange rate regime.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w10276.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10276.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Feb 2004
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Edwards, Sebastian. "Financial Openness, Sudden Stops, And Current-Account Reversals," American Economic Review, 2004, v94(2,May), 59-64.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10276

Note: IFM
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Razin, Assaf, 1998. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," CEPR Discussion Papers 1921, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2000. "Current Accounts In Debtor And Creditor Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1137-1166, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Sachs, J-D & Warner, A-M, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," Papers 517a, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
  4. De Gregorio, Jose & Edwards, Sebastian & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 2000. "Controls on capital inflows: do they work?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 59-83, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Kraay, Aart & Ventura, Jaume, 2002. "Current Accounts in the Long and Short Run," CEPR Discussion Papers 3440, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Joshua D. Angrist, 2000. "Estimation of Limited-Dependent Variable Models with Dummy Endogenous Regressors: Simple Strategies for Empirical Practice," NBER Technical Working Papers 0248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Sebastian Edwards, 2003. "Debt Relief and the Current Account: An Analysis of the HIPC Initiative," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(4), pages 513-531, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Fischer, Stanley, 1988. "Real Balances, the Exchange Rate, and Indexation: Real Variables in Disinflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 27-49, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. de Cordoba, Gonzalo Fernandez & Kehoe, Timothy J., 2000. "Capital flows and real exchange rate fluctuations following Spain's entry into the European Community," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 49-78, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Fabio Scacciavillani & Malcolm D. Knight, 1998. "Current Accounts - What is Their Relevance for Economic Policymaking?," IMF Working Papers 98/71, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Ghosh, Atish R & Ostry, Jonathan D, 1995. "The Current Account in Developing Countries: A Perspective from the Consumption-Smoothing Approach," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 305-33, May.
  14. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2003. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate, and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," NBER Working Papers 9828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2003. "Explaining Sudden Stops, Growth Collapse and BOP Crises: The Case of Distortionary Output Taxes," NBER Working Papers 9864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Stanley Fischer, 1988. "Real Balances, the Exchange Rate and Indexation: Real Variables in Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 1497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "Crisis Prevention: Lessons from Mexico and East Asia," NBER Working Papers 7233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 1999. "Banking and currency crises; how common are twins?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. Ashoka Mody & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "International Capital Crunches: The Time-Varying Role of Informational Asymmetries," IMF Working Papers 02/43, International Monetary Fund.
    Other versions:
  21. Caroline L. Freund, 2000. "Current account adjustment in industrialized countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 692, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  22. Jonathan David Ostry & Carmen Reinhart & Masao Ogaki, 1995. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle -Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," IMF Working Papers 95/3, International Monetary Fund.
    Other versions:
  23. Sebastian Edwards & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2003. "Flexible Exchange Rates as Shock Absorbers," NBER Working Papers 9867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  24. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2000. "International and Domestic Collateral Constraints in a Model of Emerging Market Crises," NBER Working Papers 7971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  26. Olumuyiwa Adedeji, 2001. "The Size and Sustainability of the Nigerian Current Account Deficits," IMF Working Papers 01/87, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  27. repec:rus:hseeco:123927 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. Donal McGettigan, 2000. "Current Account and External Sustainability in the Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union," IMF Occasional Papers 189, International Monetary Fund.
  29. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2003. "To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1173-1193, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1997. "Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Analyis," NBER Working Papers 6310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  31. Carlos O. Arteta, 2003. "Are financially dollarized countries more prone to costly crises?," International Finance Discussion Papers 763, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  32. Rudger Dornbusch & Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1995. "Currency Crises and Collapses," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1995-2), pages 219-294. [Downloadable!]
  33. Sebastian Edwards & Raul Susmel, 2003. "Interest-Rate Volatility in Emerging Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 328-348, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Sebastian Edwards, 2003. "Debt relief and fiscal sustainability," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 38-65, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You too can volunteer for RePEc, for example by editing a NEP report.

This page was last updated on 2008-7-18.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.