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The Credit Channel in Middle Income Countries

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Author Info
Aaron Tornell
Frank Westermann

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Abstract

Credit market conditions play a key role in propagating shocks in middle income countries (MICs). In particular, shocks to the spread between domestic and international interest rates have a strong effect on GDP, and an even stronger effect on domestic credit. This strong credit channel is associated with a sharp sectorial asymmetry: the output of the bank-dependent nontradables (N) sector reacts more strongly than tradables (T) output. This asymmetry, in turn, is associated with a strong reaction of the real exchange rate --the relative price between N and T goods. We present a model that reconciles these facts and leads to a well specified estimation framework. From the equilibrium we derive structural VARs that allow us to identify shocks to credit market conditions and trace their effects on the economy. We estimate these structural VARs for a group of MICs and find evidence of a strong credit channel. We argue that at the heart of the MIC credit channel are a deep asymmetry in financing opportunities across N and T sectors, and a severe currency mismatch. This makes movements in the real exchange rate the driving element in the amplification of shocks. Finally, we show that the model's key assumptions are consistent with evidence gleaned from both firm level and aggregate data.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9355.

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Date of creation: Dec 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9355

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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  1. Dell''Ariccia, Giovanni & Detragiache, Enrica & Rajan, Raghuram G, 2005. "The Real Effect of Banking Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 5088, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Madhavi Bokil, 2005. "Fear of Floating: An optimal discretionary monetary policy analysis," International Finance 0510002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Irina Bunda & Michele Ca’ Zorzi, 2009. "Signals from housing and lending booms," Working Paper Series 1094, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Nicolas Magud, 2002. "Currency Mismatch, Openness and Exchange Rate Regime Choice," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2004-14, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Sep 2004. [Downloadable!]
  5. Michael Hutchison & Ilan Noy, 2004. "Sudden Stops and the Mexican Wave: Currency Crises, Capital Flow Reversals and Output Loss in Emerging Markets," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series 1035, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Yong Sarah Zhou, 2008. "Capital Flows and Economic Fluctuations: The Role of Commercials Banks in Transmitting Shocks," IMF Working Papers 08/12, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Michael M. Hutchison & Ilan Noy & Lidan Wang, 2007. "Fiscal and Monetary Policies and the Cost of Sudden Stops," Working Papers 200724, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Almira Buzaushina & Michael Brei, 2009. "Matching International Financial Shocks in Emerging Markets," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse2_2009, University of Bonn, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  9. Nicolas Magud, 2002. "Exchange Rate Regime Choice and Country Characteristics: an Empirical Investigation into the Role of Openness," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2004-15, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 20 Oct 2004. [Downloadable!]
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