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Contagion, Bank Lending Spreads and Output Fluctuations

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Author Info
P.R. Agenor
J. Aizenman
A. Hoffmaister

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Abstract

This paper studies the effects of contagion on bank lending spreads and output fluctuations in Argentina. The first part presents the analytical framework, which analyzes the determination of bank lending spreads in the presence of verification and enforcement costs of loan contracts. The second part presents estimates of a vector autoregression model that relates the ex ante bank lending spread, the cyclical component of output, the real bank lending rate, and the external interest rate spread. The effects of a contagious shock (modeled as a positive historical shock in the external interest rate spread) are analyzed using generalized impulse response functions. The sock is shown to lead to an increase in domestic spreads and a reduction in the cyclical component of output. These results are consistent with the predictions of our analytical framework.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6850.

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Date of creation: Dec 1998
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6850

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Pierre-Richard Agenor & Joshua Aizenman, 1998. "Contagion and Volatility with Imperfect Credit Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 45(2), pages 1. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Isard, Peter & Mathieson, Donald J. & Rojas-Suarez, Liliana, 1996. "A framework for the analysis of financial reforms and the cost of official safety nets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 25-79, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Sebastian Edwards & Carlos A. Vegh, 1997. "Banks and Macroeconomics Disturbances under Predetermined Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 5977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1997. "Borrowing Risk and the Tequila Effect," IMF Working Papers 97/86, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1993. "Financial Market Imperfections and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 2494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Robert Townsend, 1979. "Optimal contracts and competitive markets with costly state verification," Staff Report 45, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Ho, Thomas S. Y. & Saunders, Anthony, 1981. "The Determinants of Bank Interest Margins: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(04), pages 581-600, November. [Downloadable!]
  11. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Peter Montiel, 2008. "Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Credit-Based Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 423-455, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Chowdhury, Abdur R., 2001. "The Impact of Financial Reform on Private Savings in Bangladesh," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  3. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Joshua Aizenman, 2005. "Financial sector inefficiencies and the debt Laffer curve," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 1-13. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Yong Sarah Zhou, 2008. "Capital Flows and Economic Fluctuations: The Role of Commercials Banks in Transmitting Shocks," IMF Working Papers 08/12, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Herrera, Santiago & Perry, Guillermo & Quintero, Neile, 2000. "Output fluctuations in Latin America - what explains the recent slowdown?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2333, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2003. "The Credit Channel in Middle Income Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Pierre-Richard Agenor & Joshua Aizenman, 1999. "Financial Sector Inefficiencies and Coordinate Failures: Implications for Crisis Management," NBER Working Papers 7446, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Aaron Tornell, 2002. "The Credit Channel in Middle Income Countries (October 2002), with Frank Westermann," UCLA Economics Online Papers 216, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Caprio, Gerard & Honohan, Patrick, 2001. "Finance for Growth: Policy Choices in a Volatile World," MPRA Paper 9929, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Stijn Claessens & Thomas Glaessner & Daniela Klingebiel, 2002. "Electronic Finance: Reshaping the Financial Landscape Around the World," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 29-61, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Pierre-Richard Agenor & Joshua Aizenman, 2008. "Capital Market Imperfections and the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," NBER Working Papers 14088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Santiago Herrera & Guillermo Perry & Neile Quintero, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in Latin America: What Explains the Recent Slowdown?," Macroeconomics 0004012, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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