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Volatility and Financial Intermediation

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  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Andrew Powell

Abstract

Following the Tequila period, its after-effects in Latin America and recent events in South East Asia, the effect of volatility on emerging market economies has become an important topic of research with the domestic financial intermediation process being advanced as one of the most important transmission mechanisms. At the same time there has been continued interest in issues related to imperfect information and rationing in credit markets. In this paper, we consider an economy where risk neutral banks provide intermediation services and risk neutral producers demand credit to finance their working capital needs. Our model blends costly state verification with imperfect enforcement power and, in this context of costly financial intermediation, we show that a weak legal system combined with high information verification costs leads to large, first-order effects of volatility on production, employment and welfare. A calibration illustrates that the semi-elasticity of welfare with respect to volatility is less than -1 for reasonable parameter values (i.e., a one percent increase in the coefficient of variation of productivity shocks would reduce welfare by more than one percent). We suggest that legal and information problems in the credit market may then be at the heart of the reason why volatility has profound effects on emerging market economies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6320.

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Date of creation: Dec 1997
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Publication status: published as Aizenman, Joshua & Powell, Andrew, 2003. "Volatility and financial intermediation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 657-679, October.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6320

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  1. Stephen D. Williamson, 1984. "Costly Monitoring, Financial Intermediation, and Equilibrium Credit Rationing," Working Papers 583, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  2. Jaffee, Dwight & Stiglitz, Joseph, 1990. "Credit rationing," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 16, pages 837-888 Elsevier.
  3. Robert S. Pindyck & Andrés Solimano, 1993. "Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993, Volume 8, pages 259-318 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique, 1997. "Rational Herd Behavior and the Globalization of Securities Markets," Working Papers 97-26, Duke University, Department of Economics.
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  7. Elhanan Helpman, 1988. "The Simple Analytics of Debt-Equity Swaps," NBER Working Papers 2771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
  9. Townsend, Robert M., 1979. "Optimal contracts and competitive markets with costly state verification," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 265-293, October.
  10. Pierre-Richard Agenor & Joshua Aizenman, 1997. "Contagion and Volatility with Imperfect Credit Markets," NBER Working Papers 6080, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy P, 1993. "Policy Uncertainty, Persistence and Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 145-63, June.
  12. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
  13. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
  14. Edwards, Sebastian & Vegh, Carlos A., 1997. "Banks and macroeconomic disturbances under predetermined exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 239-278, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Beck, Thorsten & Lundberg, Mattias & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2006. "Financial intermediary development and growth volatility: Do intermediaries dampen or magnify shocks?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1146-1167, November.
  2. Felicia Ramona Birău, 2012. "The Implications Of Liquidity Crises In The Context Of Emerging Capital Market," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(18), pages 189-193, April.
  3. Cavalcanti, Marco Antonio F.H., 2010. "Credit market imperfections and the power of the financial accelerator: A theoretical and empirical investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 118-144, March.
  4. Mallick, Debdulal, 2009. "Financial Development, Shocks, and Growth Volatility," MPRA Paper 17799, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Carrière-Swallow, Yan & Céspedes, Luis Felipe, 2013. "The impact of uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 316-325.
  6. Dimitrios Varvarigos & Keith Blackburn, 2005. "Growth, Uncertainty and Finance," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 12, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  7. Caterina Mendicino, 2006. "Credit Market and Macroeconomic Volatility," 2006 Meeting Papers 317, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Fehn, Rainer, 1999. "Globalisierung und unvollkommene Kapitalmärkte: verschärft die Knappheit international anerkannter Sicherheiten Länderkrisen?," Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Beiträge 29, Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg, Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbes. Wirtschaftsordnung und Sozialpolitik.
  9. Aysan, Ahmet Faruk, 2006. "The Effects of Volatility on Growth and Financial Development through Capital Market Imperfections," MPRA Paper 5486, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Beck, Thorsten & Degryse, Hans & Kneer, Christiane, 2014. "Is more finance better? Disentangling intermediation and size effects of financial systems," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 50-64.
  11. Pedro Elosegui & Paula Español & Demian Panigo & Emilio Blanco, 2007. "The Asymmetrical Impact of Restrictions to Financing in Argentina. Comparison by Sector, Size and Origin of Ownership (1995-2003)," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(48), pages 73-107, July - Se.
  12. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Managing Macroeconomic Crises," NBER Working Papers 10907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Ferreira da Silva, Gisele, 2002. "The impact of financial system development on business cycles volatility: cross-country evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 233-253, June.
  14. Enisse Kharroubi, 2004. "Macroeconomic Volatility and endogenous debt maturity choice," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 22, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  15. Beck, T.H.L. & Degryse, H.A. & Kneer, E.C., 2012. "Is More Finance Better? Disentangling Intermediation and Size Effects of Financial Systems," Discussion Paper 2012-060, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  16. Pedro Mazeda Gil, 2003. "A Model of Firm Behaviour with Equity Constraints and Bankruptcy Costs," FEP Working Papers 134, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  17. Kharroubi, E., 2006. "Illiquidity, Financial Development and the Growth-Volatility Relationship Illiquidity, Financial Development and the Growth-Volatility Relationship," Working papers 139, Banque de France.
  18. Joshua Aizenman & Brian Pinto, 2004. "Managing Volatility and Crises: A Practitioner's Guide Overview," NBER Working Papers 10602, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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