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Contagion, bank lending spreads, and output fluctuations

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  • Agenor, Pierre-Richard
  • Aizenman, Joshua
  • Hoffmaister, Alexander

Abstract

The authors study how contagion affects bank lending spreads and fluctuations in output in Argentina. They analyze what determines bank lending spreads when verification and enforcement costs for loan contracts are high. They present estimates of a vector auto-regression model that relates bank lending spreads, the cyclical component of output, the real bank lending rate, and the spread in external interest rates. Using generalized impulse response functions, they show that a positive historical shock to external spreads leads to an increase in domestic spreads and a reduction in the cyclical component of output. Historical decompositions indicate that shocks to external spreads immediately after the Mexican peso crisis had a sizable effect on movements in output and domestic interest rate spreads in Argentina.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 2186.

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Date of creation: 30 Sep 1999
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2186

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  1. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1997. "Borrowing Risk and the Tequila Effect," IMF Working Papers 97/86, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Sebastian Edwards & Carlos A. Végh, 1997. "Banks and Macroeconomic Disturbances Under Predetermined Exchange Rates," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 115, Universidad del CEMA.
  3. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  4. Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1988. "Financial Market Imperfections and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 2494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," Scholarly Articles 3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  6. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Joshua Aizenman, 1998. "Contagion and Volatility with Imperfect Credit Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 207-235, June.
  7. Townsend, Robert M., 1979. "Optimal contracts and competitive markets with costly state verification," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 265-293, October.
  8. Isard, Peter & Mathieson, Donald J. & Rojas-Suarez, Liliana, 1996. "A framework for the analysis of financial reforms and the cost of official safety nets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 25-79, June.
  9. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  10. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  11. Ho, Thomas S. Y. & Saunders, Anthony, 1981. "The Determinants of Bank Interest Margins: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(04), pages 581-600, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Pierre-Richard Agenor & Joshua Aizenman, 2008. "Capital Market Imperfections and the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," NBER Working Papers 14088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Caprio, Gerard & Honohan, Patrick, 2001. "Finance for Growth: Policy Choices in a Volatile World," MPRA Paper 9929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Santiago Herrera & Guillermo Perry & Neile Quintero, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in Latin America: What Explains the Recent Slowdown?," Macroeconomics 0004012, EconWPA.
  4. Victor Pontines & Reza Y. Siregar, 2007. "Tranquil and Crisis Windows, Heteroscedasticity, and Contagion Measurement: MS-VAR Application of the DCC Procedure," School of Economics Working Papers 2007-02, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
  5. Khalid, Ahmed M. & Kawai, Masahiro, 2003. "Was financial market contagion the source of economic crisis in Asia?: Evidence using a multivariate VAR model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 131-156, February.
  6. Herrera, Santiago & Perry, Guillermo & Quintero, Neile, 2000. "Output fluctuations in Latin America - what explains the recent slowdown?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2333, The World Bank.
  7. Ann Cavlovic & Kathleen Day, . "Equalization and the Incentives for Growth: An Empirical Investigation of the "Tax-Back" Effect," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 2003-23, Department of Finance Canada.
  8. Aaron Tornell, 2002. "The Credit Channel in Middle Income Countries (October 2002), with Frank Westermann," UCLA Economics Online Papers 216, UCLA Department of Economics.
  9. Pierre-Richard Agenor & Joshua Aizenman, 1999. "Financial Sector Inefficiencies and Coordinate Failures: Implications for Crisis Management," NBER Working Papers 7446, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Yong Sarah Zhou, 2008. "Capital Flows and Economic Fluctuations," IMF Working Papers 08/12, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Joshua Aizenman, 2005. "Financial sector inefficiencies and the debt Laffer curve," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 1-13.
  12. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002. "The Credit Channel in Middle Income Countries," NBER Working Papers 9355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Peter J. Montiel, 2007. "Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Credit-Based Economy," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 90, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  14. Stijn Claessens & Thomas Glaessner & Daniela Klingebiel, 2002. "Electronic Finance: Reshaping the Financial Landscape Around the World," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 29-61, August.

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