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The Effects of Volatility on Growth and Financial Development through Capital Market Imperfections

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  • Ahmet Faruk Aysan

Abstract

This paper provides a model to account for the empirical evidence that volatility reduces growth. In the model, greater volatility increases the cost associated with capital market imperfections and induces the financial intermediaries to charge higher interest rates. The model is based on one of overlapping generations with two types of technologies. The more productive technology requires fixed investment in the first period. Individual with income less than the amount of fixed investment may borrow in financial markets to obtain more productive technology. Increase in volatility raises the cost of borrowing and makes it less attractive to invest in more productive technology for individuals below certain income in the first period. Hence, volatility reduces growth by deterring people from taking advantage of more productive technology. This model also explains the empirical findings of Ramey and Ramey (1995) that investment is not the channel between volatility and growth by suggesting that totals factor productivity rather than the total factor accumulation is the key for growth.
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  • Ahmet Faruk Aysan, 2006. "The Effects of Volatility on Growth and Financial Development through Capital Market Imperfections," Working Papers 2006/12, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bou:wpaper:2006/12
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    1. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rodolfo Cermeño & María José Roa García & Claudio González-Vega, 2016. "Financial Development and the Volatility of Growth: Time Series Evidence for Mexico and United States," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 195-232, july-dece.
    2. Lin, Pei-Chien & Huang, Ho-Chuan (River), 2012. "Banking industry volatility and growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1007-1019.
    3. Rodolfo Cermeño & María Roa García & Claudio González-Vega, 2012. "Financial Development and Volatility of Growth: Time Series Evidence for Mexico and USA," DEGIT Conference Papers c017_035, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    4. Anis Chowdhury, 2012. "Structural Adjustment and Crises –Which Way Now?," Institutions and Economies (formerly known as International Journal of Institutions and Economies), Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya, vol. 4(1), pages 85-118, April.
    5. Rodolfo Cermeño Bazán & María Roa García & Claudio González Vega, 2012. "Financial Development and Growth Volatility: Time Series Evidence for Mexico and The United States," Working papers DTE 544, CIDE, División de Economía.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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