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Crises and Growth: A Re-Evaluation

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Author Info
Romaine Ranciere
Aaron Tornell
Frank Westermann

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Abstract

We address the question of whether growth and welfare can be higher in crisis prone economies. First, we show that there is a robust empirical link between per-capita GDP growth and negative skewness of credit growth across countries with active financial markets. That is, countries that have experienced occasional crises have grown on average faster than countries with smooth credit conditions. We then present a two-sector endogenous growth model in which financial crises can occur, and analyze the relationship between financial fragility and growth. The underlying credit market imperfections generate borrowing constraints, bottlenecks and low growth. We show that under certain conditions endogenous real exchange rate risk arises and firms find it optimal to take on credit risk in the form of currency mismatch. Along such a risky path average growth is higher, but self-fulfilling crises occur occasionally. Furthermore, we establish conditions under which the adoption of credit risk is welfare improving and brings the allocation nearer to the Pareto optimal level. The design of the model is motivated by several features of recent crises: credit risk in the form of foreign currency denominated debt; costly crises that generate firesales and widespread bankruptcies; and asymmetric sectorial responses, where the nontradables sector falls more than the tradables sector in the wake of crises.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10073.

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Date of creation: Nov 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10073

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann & Lorenza Martinez, 2004. "The Positive Link Between Financial Liberalization, Growth and Crises," NBER Working Papers 10293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Aaron Tornell, . "Decomposing the Effects of Financial Liberalization: Crises vs. Growth (March 2006)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 408, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Henk C. Kranendonk & Jan Bonenkamp & Johan P. Verbruggen, 2004. "A Leading Indicator for the Dutch Economy – Methodological and Empirical Revision of the CPB System," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  4. Guido Lorenzoni, 2007. "Inefficient Credit Booms," NBER Working Papers 13639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Yannick Kalantzis, 2005. "Financial fragility in emerging market countries: firm balance sheets and the productive structure," PSE Working Papers 2005-17, PSE (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
  6. Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2005. "Systemic Crises and Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Carolyn Sissoko, 2002. "Short-Term Credit: A Monetary Channel Linking Finance to Growth," Occidental Economics Working Papers 8, Occidental College, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2006. [Downloadable!]
  8. Romain Ranciere & Olivier Jeanne, 2006. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries: Formulas and Applications," IMF Working Papers 06/229, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Aysan, Ahmet Faruk, 2006. "The Effects of Volatility on Growth and Financial Development through Capital Market Imperfections," MPRA Paper 5486, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Aaron Tornell, 2005. "Systemic Crises and Growth (September 2006)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 359, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2006. "Decomposing the Effects of Financial Liberalization: Crises vs. Growth," NBER Working Papers 12806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Agustinus, Prasetyantoko & Luhur, Fajar-Marta, 2008. "Indonesia’s Ponzi Economy: Does Financial Crisis Give a Lesson," MPRA Paper 6776, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  13. Agustín S. Bénétrix and Sébastien Wälti, 2008. "Indicators of regional financial integration," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp243, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Aaron Tornell, 2003. "Liberalization, Growth and Financial Crises (October 2003)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 276, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  16. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann & Lorenza Martinez, 2004. "The Positive Link Between Financial Liberalization Growth and Crises," UCLA Economics Working Papers 834, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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