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Asymmetric Cycles

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  • Boyan Jovanovic

Abstract

I estimate a model in which new technology entails random adjustment needs. Rapid adjustments may cause measured productivity to decline. The slow-downs persist because adjustment is costly, and hence protracted. The model explains both the “steepness” and the “deepness” asymmetry of cycles. Adjustment costs amount to about 14% of output and technological inefficiency to about 28%. Firms abandon technologies long before they are perfected—current practice total factor productivity (TFP) is 20% below its maximal level. Copyright 2006, Wiley-Blackwell.

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  • Boyan Jovanovic, 2006. "Asymmetric Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(1), pages 145-162.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:73:y:2006:i:1:p:145-162
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2006.00372.x
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    6. Imbs, Jean, 2007. "Growth and volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1848-1862, October.
    7. Magud, Nicolas E., 2008. "On asymmetric business cycles and the effectiveness of counter-cyclical fiscal policies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 885-905, September.
    8. Kiminori Matsuyama & Iryna Sushko & Laura Gardini, 2014. "Globalization and Synchronization of Innovation Cycles," Discussion Papers 1527, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Dec 2014.
    9. Gadi Barlevy, 2004. "The Cost of Business Cycles and the Benefits of Stabilization: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 10926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    12. Bassanini, Andrea & Brunello, Giorgio, 2007. "Barriers to Entry, Deregulation and Workplace Training," IZA Discussion Papers 2746, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2008. "The brevity and violence of contractions and expansions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 738-751, May.
    14. Martin Zagler, 2017. "Empirical evidence on growth and business cycles," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(3), pages 547-566, August.
    15. Posch, Olaf & Wälde, Klaus, 2005. "Natural volatility, welfare and taxation," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 57, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    16. Hur, Joonyoung & Kim, Insu, 2017. "Inattentive agents and disagreement about economic activity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 175-190.
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    20. Almeida, Pedro Cameira de & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2011. "A assimetria dos ciclos económicos: Evidência internacional usando o teste triples [The asymmetry of business cycles: International evidence using triples test]," MPRA Paper 35208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Dong, Feng & Xu, Zhiwei, 2020. "Cycles of credit expansion and misallocation: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    22. Cheremukhin, Anton & Tutino, Antonella, 2016. "Information rigidities and asymmetric business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 142-158.
    23. Aaron Tornell, 2003. "Crises and Growth: A Re-evaluation (September 2003)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 264, UCLA Department of Economics.
    24. Atsushi Ohyama & Serguey Braguinsky & Kevin M. Murphy, 2004. "Entrepreneurial Ability and Market Selection in an Infant Industry: Evidence from the Japanese Cotton Spinning Industry," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(2), pages 354-381, April.
    25. Gadi Barlevy, 2005. "The cost of business cycles and the benefits of stabilization," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 29(Q I), pages 32-49.

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    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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