IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/man/cgbcrp/01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility in Learning-by-Doing Economies

Author

Listed:
  • K Blackburn
  • A Pelloni

Abstract

This paper contains an investigation into the potential linkages between the short-run (cyclical) and long-run (secular) movements in economic activity. The investigation is based on an analytically solvable stochastic monetary growth model in which learning-by-doing accounts for endogenous technological change. The dynamic general equilibrium of this model implies that both the first and second moments of disturbances have first-order effects on both the first and second moments of variables. Given this, it is shown that the correlation between the mean and variance of output growth depends fundamentally on two main factors - the source of stochastic fluctuations (real shocks or nominal shocks) and the functioning of the labour market (wage flexibility or wage rigidity). These results contradict certain common presumptions and may help to explain certain empirical evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • K Blackburn & A Pelloni, 2001. "On the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility in Learning-by-Doing Economies," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 01, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    • Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hummedia.manchester.ac.uk/schools/soss/cgbcr/discussionpapers/dpcgbcr1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    3. Mirman, Leonard J, 1971. "Uncertainty and Optimal Consumption Decisions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(1), pages 179-185, January.
    4. Cho, Jang-Ok & Cooley, Thomas F, 1995. "The Business Cycle with Nominal Contracts," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 6(1), pages 13-33, June.
    5. Taylor, John B., 1999. "Staggered price and wage setting in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 1009-1050, Elsevier.
    6. Rankin, Neil, 1998. "Nominal rigidity and monetary uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 185-199, January.
    7. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
    8. Philippe Aghion & Gilles Saint‐Paul, 1998. "Uncovering Some Causal Relationships Between Productivity Growth and the Structure of Economic Fluctuations: A Tentative Survey," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 12(2), pages 279-303, July.
    9. Stadler, George W, 1990. "Business Cycle Models with Endogenous Technology," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 763-778, September.
    10. Martin, Philippe & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1997. "Stabilization Policy, Learning-by-Doing, and Economic Growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(2), pages 152-166, April.
    11. Hayne E. Leland, 1968. "Saving and Uncertainty: The Precautionary Demand for Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 82(3), pages 465-473.
    12. Benassy, Jean-Pascal, 1995. "Money and wage contracts in an optimizing model of the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 303-315, April.
    13. Bean, Charles R., 1990. "Endogenous growth and the procyclical behaviour of productivity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(2-3), pages 355-363, May.
    14. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy P, 1993. "Policy Uncertainty, Persistence and Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 145-163, June.
    15. Speight, Alan E H, 1999. "UK Output Variability and Growth: Some Further Evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 175-184, May.
    16. Blackburn, Keith, 1999. "Can Stabilisation Policy Reduce Long-Run Growth?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 67-77, January.
    17. Benavie, Arthur & Grinols, Earl & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1996. "Adjustment costs and investment in a stochastic endogenous growth model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 77-100, August.
    18. Grier, Kevin B. & Tullock, Gordon, 1989. "An empirical analysis of cross-national economic growth, 1951-1980," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 259-276, September.
    19. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
    20. Cooper, Russell & Johri, Alok, 2002. "Learning-by-doing and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1539-1566, November.
    21. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1993. "Macroeconomic Policies, Growth, and Welfare in a Stochastic Economy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(4), pages 953-981, November.
    22. Martin, Philippe & Ann Rogers, Carol, 2000. "Long-term growth and short-term economic instability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 359-381, February.
    23. Alan E. H. Speight, 1999. "UK Output Variability and Growth: Some Further Evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 175-184, May.
    24. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Ennio Stacchetti, 1999. "Technology (and Policy) Shocks in Models of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 7063, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Hairault, Jean-Olivier & Portier, Franck, 1993. "Money, New-Keynesian macroeconomics and the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1533-1568, December.
    26. Dawson, John W. & Stephenson, E. Frank, 1997. "The link between volatility and growth: Evidence from the States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 365-369, September.
    27. Caporale, Tony & McKiernan, Barbara, 1996. "The Relationship between Output Variability and Growth: Evidence from Post War UK Data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(2), pages 229-236, May.
    28. Rogerson, Richard, 1988. "Indivisible labor, lotteries and equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-16, January.
    29. K. J. Arrow, 1971. "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: F. H. Hahn (ed.), Readings in the Theory of Growth, chapter 11, pages 131-149, Palgrave Macmillan.
    30. Pelloni, Alessandra, 1997. "Nominal Shocks, Endogenous Growth and the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(441), pages 467-474, March.
    31. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "Current Real-Business-Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor-Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 430-450, June.
    32. de Hek, Paul A, 1999. "On Endogenous Growth under Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 727-744, August.
    33. Rankin, Neil, 1998. "Nominal rigidity and monetary uncertainty in a small open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 679-702, May.
    34. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
    35. Kahn, Shulamit, 1997. "Evidence of Nominal Wage Stickiness from Microdata," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 993-1008, December.
    36. Fatas, Antonio, 2000. "Endogenous growth and stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 107-128, February.
    37. William A. Brock & Leonard J. Mirman, 2001. "Optimal Economic Growth And Uncertainty: The Discounted Case," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 1, pages 3-37, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    38. David Soskice & Torben Iversen, 2000. "The Nonneutrality of Monetary Policy with Large Price or Wage Setters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 265-284.
    39. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1971. "Increasing risk II: Its economic consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 66-84, March.
    40. Jerusalem D. Levhari & T. N. Srinivasan, 1969. "Optimal Savings under Uncertainty," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 36(2), pages 153-163.
    41. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    42. Kevin B. Grier & Mark J. Perry, 2000. "The effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth: some garch-m evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 45-58.
    43. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1991. "Technology Commitment and the Cost of Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 3755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    44. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
    45. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paul A. de Hek, 2004. "On Growth and Fluctuations: The Option to Adobt New Technology," DEGIT Conference Papers c009_017, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    2. Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2005. "Investment and Uncertainty in the G7," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(1), pages 1-32, April.
    3. Jeffrey Edwards & Benhua Yang, 2009. "An empirical refinement of the relationship between growth and volatility," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(11), pages 1331-1343.
    4. Mickaël Clévenot & Marie Silvère Mbome, 2014. "Reassessing Vulnerability to Macroeconomic Volatility: a nonstationary panel approach," CEPN Working Papers hal-00951544, HAL.
    5. Paul A. de Hek, 2005. "Uncertain Technological Change under Capital Mobility," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-033/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Paul A. de Hek, 2002. "Endogenous Technological Change under Uncertainty," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-047/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 08 Nov 2002.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Keith Blackburn & Alessandra Pelloni, 2005. "Growth, cycles, and stabilization policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(2), pages 262-282, April.
    2. Ragchaasuren, Galindev, 2005. "The Relationship between Growth and Volatility under Alternative Shocks," Economics Discussion Papers 9980, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    3. E Andreou & A Pelloni & M Sensier, 2003. "The effect of nominal shock uncertainty on output growth," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 40, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    4. Barbara Annicchiarico & Luisa Corrado & Alessandra Pelloni, 2011. "Long‐Term Growth And Short‐Term Volatility: The Labour Market Nexus," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(s1), pages 646-672, June.
    5. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2020. "A re-examination of growth and growth uncertainty relationship in a stochastic volatility in the mean model with time-varying parameters," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 611-641, August.
    6. Christoph Priesmeier & Nikolai Stähler, 2011. "Long Dark Shadows Or Innovative Spirits? The Effects Of (Smoothing) Business Cycles On Economic Growth: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 898-912, December.
    7. Barbara Annicchiarico & Luisa Corrado & Alessandra Pelloni, 2011. "Long‐Term Growth And Short‐Term Volatility: The Labour Market Nexus," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(s1), pages 646-672, June.
    8. Keith Blackburn & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2008. "Human capital accumulation and output growth in a stochastic environment," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 36(3), pages 435-452, September.
    9. Barbara Annicchiarico & Luisa Corrado & Alessandra Pelloni, 2008. "Volatility, Growth and Labour Elasticity," Working Paper series 32_08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    10. Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos, 2008. "Are economic growth and the variability of the business cycle related? Evidence from five European countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 445-459.
    11. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas & Christos Savva, 2021. "Is British output growth related to its uncertainty? Evidence using eight centuries of data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 345-364, July.
    12. Keith Blackburn & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2006. "Human Capital Accumulation in a Stochastic Environment: Some New Results on the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0618, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    13. Barbara Annicchiarico & Alessandra Pelloni, 2014. "Productivity growth and volatility: how important are wage and price rigidities?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(1), pages 306-324, January.
    14. Berument, M. Hakan & Dincer, N. Nergiz & Mustafaoglu, Zafer, 2012. "Effects of growth volatility on economic performance – Empirical evidence from Turkey," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 217(2), pages 351-356.
    15. D Varvarigos, 2004. "Non-neutrality and Uncertainty in a Model of Growth," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 41, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    16. Ragchaasuren, Galindev, 2005. "On the Effect of Monetary Stabilisation Policy on Long-run Growth," Economics Discussion Papers 8883, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    17. The Anh Pham, 2018. "Policy volatility and growth," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 17(2), pages 87-97, July.
    18. Dimitrios Varvarigos & Keith Blackburn, 2005. "Growth, Uncertainty and Finance," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 12, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    19. Dimitrios Bakas & Georgios Chortareas & Georgios Magkonis, 2019. "Volatility and growth: a not so straightforward relationship," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 874-907.
    20. The Pham, 2011. "Growth, volatility and stabilisation policy in a DSGE model with nominal rigidities and learning-by-doing," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 307-322, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marianne Sensier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/semanuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.