Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Long-Term Growth and Short-Term Volatility: The Labour Market Nexus

Contents:

Author Info

  • Barbara Annicchiarico

    ()

  • Luisa Corrado

    ()

  • Alessandra Pelloni

    ()

Abstract

We study the relationship between growth and variability in a DSGE model with nominal rigidities and growth driven by learning-by-doing. We show that this relationship may be positive or negative depending on the impulse source of fluctuations A key role is also played by the Frisch elasticity of labour supply and by institutional features of the labour market. Our general findings are that monetary shocks volatility will generally have a negative effect on growth, while the opposite tends to be true for fiscal and productivity shocks. These findings are somehow consistent with the existing empirical evidence: data show, in fact, a somewhat ambiguous relationship between output growth and real variability, but a generally negative relationship between output growth and nominal variability.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/economics/CDMA/papers/wp0806.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CDMA Working Paper Series with number 200806.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 15 Jul 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:san:cdmawp:0806

Contact details of provider:
Postal: School of Economics and Finance, University of St. Andrews, Fife KY16 9AL
Phone: 01334 462420
Fax: 01334 462444
Email:
Web page: http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/cdma
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Growth; Volatility; Monetary and Real Shocks; Labour Supply Elasticity; Second-Order Approximation Methods.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Lombardo, Giovanni & Sutherland, Alan, 2007. "Computing second-order-accurate solutions for rational expectation models using linear solution methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 515-530, February.
  2. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
  3. William T. Dickens & Lorenz Goette & Erica L. Groshen & Steinar Holden & Julian Messina & Mark E. Schweitzer & Jarkko Turunen & Melanie E. Ward, 2007. "How Wages Change: Micro Evidence from the International Wage Flexibility Project," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 195-214, Spring.
  4. Christopher A. Sims & Jinill Kim & Sunghyun Kim, 2004. "Calculating and Using Second Order Accurate Solution of Discrete Time Dynamic Equilibrium Models," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 411, Econometric Society.
  5. Dotsey, Michael & Sarte, Pierre Daniel, 2000. "Inflation uncertainty and growth in a cash-in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 631-655, June.
  6. Canton, E.J.F., 1996. "Business Cycles in a Two-Sector Model of Endogenous Growth," Discussion Paper 1996-116, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  7. Bénassy, Jean-Pascal, 1993. "Money and wage contracts in an optimizing model of the business cycle," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9325, CEPREMAP.
  8. Walde, Klaus & Woitek, Ulrich, 2004. "R&D expenditure in G7 countries and the implications for endogenous fluctuations and growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 91-97, January.
  9. Kevin B. Grier & �lan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 551-565.
  10. Elder, John, 2004. "Another Perspective on the Effects of Inflation Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(5), pages 911-28, October.
  11. Yongsung Chang & Sun-Bin Kim, 2003. "From individual to aggregate labor supply : a quantitative analysis based on a heterogeneous agent macroeconomy," Working Paper 03-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  12. Andreou Elena & Pelloni Alessandra & Sensier Marianne, 2008. "Is volatility good for growth? Evidence from the G7," wp.comunite 0041, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
  13. Evans, Lynne & Kenc, Turalay, 2003. "Welfare Cost Of Monetary And Fiscal Policy Shocks," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 212-238, April.
  14. Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Loayza, Norman, 2004. "Volatility and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3184, The World Bank.
  15. Judson, Ruth & Orphanides, Athanasios, 1999. "Inflation, Volatility and Growth," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 117-38, April.
  16. Gray, Jo Anna, 1976. "Wage indexation: A macroeconomic approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 221-235, April.
  17. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2004. "Optimal Simple and Implementable Monetary and Fiscal Rules," NBER Working Papers 10253, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Blundell, Richard & Macurdy, Thomas, 1999. "Labor supply: A review of alternative approaches," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 27, pages 1559-1695 Elsevier.
  19. Dawson, John W. & Stephenson, E. Frank, 1997. "The link between volatility and growth: Evidence from the States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 365-369, September.
  20. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1999. "Resuscitating real business cycles," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 927-1007 Elsevier.
  21. Cooper, Russell & Johri, Alok, 2002. "Learning-by-doing and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1539-1566, November.
  22. Boyan Jovanovic & Peter L. Rousseau, 2002. "Moore's Law and Learning-By-Doing," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(2), pages 346-375, April.
  23. Martin, Philippe & Ann Rogers, Carol, 2000. "Long-term growth and short-term economic instability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 359-381, February.
  24. Attanasio, Orazio P & Weber, Guglielmo, 1993. "Consumption Growth, the Interest Rate and Aggregation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 631-49, July.
  25. Marvin Goodfriend, 2002. "Interest on reserves and monetary policy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 77-84.
  26. Rebecca Achee Thornton & Peter Thompson, 2001. "Learning from Experience and Learning from Others: An Exploration of Learning and Spillovers in Wartime Shipbuilding," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1350-1368, December.
  27. de Hek, Paul A, 1999. "On Endogenous Growth under Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 727-44, August.
  28. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 2000. " Government Policy in a Stochastic Growth Model with Elastic Labor Supply," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 2(4), pages 389-433.
  29. Temple, Jonathan, 2000. " Inflation and Growth: Stories Short and Tall," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 395-426, September.
  30. J. Galí & D. López-Salido & J. Vallés, 2003. "Understanding the effects of government spending on consumption," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  31. Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Jinki Kim, 2006. "Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(3), pages 319-343, 06.
  32. Blackburn, Keith & Pelloni, Alessandra, 2004. "On the relationship between growth and volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 123-127, April.
  33. Grinols, E.L. & Turnovsky, S.J., 1992. "Risk, the Financial Market and Macroeconomic Equilibrium," Working Papers 92-01, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  34. Stadler, George W, 1990. "Business Cycle Models with Endogenous Technology," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 763-78, September.
  35. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-Order Approximation to the Policy Function," Departmental Working Papers 200106, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  36. Gadi Barlevy, 2007. "On the Cyclicality of Research and Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1131-1164, September.
  37. Paul Gaggl & Sandra Steindl, 2007. "Business Cycles and Growth: A Survey," WIFO Working Papers 308, WIFO.
  38. K Blackburn & A Pelloni, 2002. "Growth, Cycles and Stabilisation Policy," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0216, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  39. Richard Rogerson & Johanna Wallenius, 2007. "Micro and Macro Elasticities in a Life Cycle Model With Taxes," NBER Working Papers 13017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Keith Blackburn & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2008. "Human capital accumulation and output growth in a stochastic environment," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 435-452, September.
  41. Stephen Turnovsky & Pradip Chattopadhyay, 1998. "Volatility and Growth in Developing Economies: Some Numerical Results and Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 0055, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  42. Martin, Philippe & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1995. "Stabilization Policy, Learning by Doing, and Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1130, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  43. Javier Andres & Ignacio Hernando, 1997. "Does Inflation Harm Economic Growth? Evidence for the OECD," NBER Working Papers 6062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  44. Blau, Francine D. & Kahn, Lawrence M., 2006. "Changes in the Labor Supply Behavior of Married Women: 1980-2000," IZA Discussion Papers 2180, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  45. K Blackburn & R Galindev, 2003. "Growth, Volatility and Learning," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0303, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  46. Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Human Capital and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 12-17, May.
  47. Varvarigos, Dimitrios, 2008. "Inflation, variability, and the evolution of human capital in a model with transactions costs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 320-326, March.
  48. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October.
  49. Casey B. Mulligan, 2004. "What do Aggregate Consumption Euler Equations Say about the Capital Income Tax Burden?," NBER Working Papers 10262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  50. Caporale, Tony & McKiernan, Barbara, 1996. "The Relationship between Output Variability and Growth: Evidence from Post War UK Data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(2), pages 229-36, May.
  51. Blackburn, Keith & Galindev, Ragchaasuren, 2003. "Growth, volatility and learning," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 417-421, June.
  52. Blackburn, Keith, 1999. "Can Stabilisation Policy Reduce Long-Run Growth?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 67-77, January.
  53. Kevin B. Grier & Mark J. Perry, 2000. "The effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth: some garch-m evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 45-58.
  54. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  55. Robert E. Hall, 1981. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," NBER Working Papers 0720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  56. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2005. "Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(si), pages 31-63.
  57. Annette Vissing-J�rgensen & Orazio P. Attanasio, 2003. "Stock-Market Participation, Intertemporal Substitution, and Risk-Aversion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 383-391, May.
  58. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Henry E. Siu & Ennio Stacchetti, 2005. "Fluctuations in Convex Models of Endogenous Growth I: Growth Effects," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(4), pages 780-804, October.
  59. Jinill Kim & Sunghyun Kim & Ernst Schaumburg & Christopher A. Sims, 2003. "Calculating and Using Second Order Accurate Solutions of Discrete Time," Levine's Bibliography 666156000000000284, UCLA Department of Economics.
  60. Pelloni, Alessandra, 1997. "Nominal Shocks, Endogenous Growth and the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(441), pages 467-74, March.
  61. Beaudry, Paul & van Wincoop, Eric, 1996. "The Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution: An Exploration Using a US Panel of State Data," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 63(251), pages 495-512, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Annicchiarico Barbara & Pelloni Alessandra, 2011. "Productivity growth and volatility: How important are wage and price rigidities?," wp.comunite 0089, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
  2. Barbara Annicchiarico & Alessandra Pelloni & Lorenza Rossi, 2010. "Endogenous Growth, Monetary Shocks and Nominal Rigidities," Quaderni di Dipartimento 120, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
  3. Andreou Elena & Pelloni Alessandra & Sensier Marianne, 2008. "Is volatility good for growth? Evidence from the G7," wp.comunite 0041, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
  4. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Rossi, Lorenza, 2013. "Optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with endogenous growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 274-285.
  5. Christoph Priesmeier & Nikolai Stähler, 2011. "Long Dark Shadows Or Innovative Spirits? The Effects Of (Smoothing) Business Cycles On Economic Growth: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 898-912, December.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:san:cdmawp:0806. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bram Boskamp).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.