Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Technology (and Policy) Shocks in Models of Endogenous Growth

Contents:

Author Info

  • Larry E. Jones
  • Rodolfo E. Manuelli
  • Ennio Stacchetti

Abstract

Is there a trade-off between fluctuations and growth? The empirical evidence is mixed, with some studies (Kormendi and Meguire (1985)) finding a positive relationship, while others (Ramey and Ramey (1995)) finding the a negative one. Our objective in this paper is to understand how fundamental uncertainty can affect the long run growth rate, and what are the factors that determine the nature (positive or negative) of the relationship. Qualitatively, we show that the relationship between volatility in fundamentals and policies and mean growth can be either positive or negative. We identify the curvature of the utility function as a key parameter that determines the sign of the relationship. Quantitatively, we find that when we move from a world of perfect certainty to one with uncertainty that resembles the average uncertainty in a large sample of countries, growth rates increase somewhere between 0.17% and 0.80%, with 0.20% being a reasonable' estimate. Even though these are nontrivial changes, they are not large enough be themselves to account for the large differences in mean growth rates observed in the data. However, we find that differences in the curvature of preferences have very substantial effects on the estimated variability of stationary objects like the consumption/output ratio and hours worked. For this reason, we expect that the models considered in this paper will provide the basis of sharp estimates of the curvature parameter.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w7063.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7063.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Apr 1999
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as With Peter E. Rossi, published as "Optimal Taxation in Models of Endogenous Growth", Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 101, no. 3 (1993): 485-517.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7063

Note: EFG
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Zhu, Xiaodong, 1992. "Optimal fiscal policy in a stochastic growth model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 250-289, December.
  2. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1971. "Increasing risk II: Its economic consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 66-84, March.
  3. Bean, Charles R., 1990. "Endogenous growth and the procyclical behaviour of productivity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(2-3), pages 355-363, May.
  4. Hopenhayn, Hugo A & Muniagurria, Maria E, 1996. "Policy Variability and Economic Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(4), pages 611-25, October.
  5. Andrew Atkeson & Christopher Phelan, 1994. "Reconsidering the Costs of Business Cycles with Incomplete Markets," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 187-218 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
  7. Kocherlakota, Narayana R & Yi, Kei-Mu, 1997. "Is There Endogenous Long-Run Growth? Evidence from the United States and the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(2), pages 235-62, May.
  8. Robert E. Hall, 1999. "Controlling the Price Level," NBER Working Papers 6914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Levhari, David & Srinivasan, T N, 1969. "Optimal Savings under Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(106), pages 153-63, April.
  10. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October.
  11. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
  12. Robert J. Barro & Paul Romer, 1993. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr93-1, June.
    • Robert J. Barro & Paul M. Romer, 1991. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr91-1, June.
  13. Kehoe, Timothy J & Levine, David K & Romer, Paul M, 1992. "On Characterizing Equilibria of Economies with Externalities and Taxes as Solutions to Optimization Problems," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 43-68, January.
  14. Michael Dotsey & Pierre-Daniel Sarte, 1997. "Inflation uncertainty and growth in a simple monetary model," Working Paper 97-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  15. Jones, L.E. & manuelli, R.E., 1994. "The Sources of Growth," Working papers 9428, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  16. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1996. "Factor-Hoarding and the Propagation of Business-Cycle Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1154-74, December.
  17. Sergio Rebelo, 1999. "Long Run Policy Analysis and Long Run Growth," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2114, David K. Levine.
  18. Edmond S. Phelps, 1961. "The Accumulation of Risky Capital: A Discrete-Time Sequential Utility Analysis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 109, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  19. Paul Gomme, 1991. "Money and growth revisited," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  20. Imrohoruglu, Ayse, 1989. "Cost of Business Cycles with Indivisibilities and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1364-83, December.
  21. Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993. "Output dynamics in real business cycle models," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  22. Maurice Obstfeld, 1992. "Risk-taking, global diversification, and growth," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 61, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  23. repec:fth:simfra:93-03 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Brock, William A. & Mirman, Leonard J., 1972. "Optimal economic growth and uncertainty: The discounted case," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 479-513, June.
  25. Judson, Ruth & Orphanides, Athanasios, 1999. "Inflation, Volatility and Growth," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 117-38, April.
  26. Fatás, Antonio, 1996. "Endogenous Growth and Stochastic Trends," CEPR Discussion Papers 1340, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  27. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy P, 1993. "Policy Uncertainty, Persistence and Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 145-63, June.
  28. Alvarez, Fernando & Stokey, Nancy L., 1998. "Dynamic Programming with Homogeneous Functions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 167-189, September.
  29. Jones, Larry E & Manuelli, Rodolfo E, 1990. "A Convex Model of Equilibrium Growth: Theory and Policy Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 1008-38, October.
  30. Becker, Robert A., 1985. "Capital income taxation and perfect foresight," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 147-167, March.
  31. Christiano, Lawrence J., 1988. "Why does inventory investment fluctuate so much?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 247-280.
  32. Kei-Mu Yi & Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1996. "Is there endogenous long-run growth?: Evidence from the U.S. and the U.K," Staff Reports 17, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  33. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
  34. Manuelli, Rodolfo & Sargent, Thomas J., 1988. "Models of business cycles : A review essay," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 523-542.
  35. Eaton, Jonathan, 1981. "Fiscal Policy, Inflation and the Accumulation of Risky Capital," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3), pages 435-45, July.
  36. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Donaldson, John B., 1985. "A note on the effects of capital income taxation on the dynamics of a competitive economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 255-265, November.
  37. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
  38. Gomme, P., 1993. "Money and Growth Revisited : Measuring the Costs of Inflation in an Endogenous Growth Model," Discussion Papers dp93-03, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
  39. Jones, Larry E & Manuelli, Rodolfo E & Rossi, Peter E, 1993. "Optimal Taxation in Models of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 485-517, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7063. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.