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Inflation uncertainty and growth in a simple monetary model

Author

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  • Michael Dotsey
  • Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of inflation variability on economic growth in a model where money is introduced via a cash-in-advance constraint. In this setting, we find that inflation adversely affects long-run growth, even when the cash-in-advance constraint applies only to consumption. At the same time, we find that inflation and growth are positively related in the short-run. In addition, variability tends to increase average growth through a precautionary savings motive. Since inflation and inflation variability tend to be highly correlated, this latter effect attenuates the negative long-run relationship between inflation and real growth. It also provides a partial rational for the notorious lack of robustness in cross-country regressions of growth and inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Dotsey & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, 1997. "Inflation uncertainty and growth in a simple monetary model," Working Paper 97-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:97-05
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Ennio Stacchetti, 1999. "Technology (and Policy) Shocks in Models of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 7063, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Henry E. Siu & Ennio Stacchetti, 2005. "Fluctuations in Convex Models of Endogenous Growth I: Growth Effects," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(4), pages 780-804, October.
    3. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli, 1999. "Volatile Policy and Private Information: The Case of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 7072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jill A. Holman, 2000. "Government budgetary policies, economic growth, and currency substitution in a small open economy," Research Working Paper RWP 00-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation (Finance); Monetary policy;

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