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Inflation uncertainty and growth in a simple monetary model

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Author Info

  • Michael Dotsey
  • Pierre-Daniel Sarte

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of inflation variability on economic growth in a model where money is introduced via a cash-in-advance constraint. In this setting, we find that inflation adversely affects long-run growth, even when the cash-in-advance constraint applies only to consumption. At the same time, we find that inflation and growth are positively related in the short-run. In addition, variability tends to increase average growth through a precautionary savings motive. Since inflation and inflation variability tend to be highly correlated, this latter effect attenuates the negative long-run relationship between inflation and real growth. It also provides a partial rational for the notorious lack of robustness in cross-country regressions of growth and inflation.

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File URL: http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/working_papers/1997/wp_97-5.cfm
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in its series Working Paper with number 97-05.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:97-05

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Related research

Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Monetary policy;

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Cited by:
  1. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Ennio Stacchetti, 2000. "Technology (and policy) shocks in models of endogenous growth," Staff Report 281, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli, 1999. "Volatile Policy and Private Information: The Case of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 7072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. K C Neanidis, 2005. "Aid, Budgetary Policies, and the Macroeconomy: Growth, Inflation, and Welfare," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 58, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  4. Jill A. Holman, 2000. "Government budgetary policies, economic growth, and currency substitution in a small open economy," Research Working Paper RWP 00-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  5. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Henry E. Siu & Ennio Stacchetti, 2005. "Fluctuations in Convex Models of Endogenous Growth I: Growth Effects," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(4), pages 780-804, October.

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