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Technology (and policy) shocks in models of endogenous growth

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Author Info
Larry E. Jones
Rodolfo E. Manuelli
Ennio Stacchetti

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Abstract

Our objective is to understand how fundamental uncertainty can affect the long-run growth rate and what factors determine the nature of the relationship. Qualitatively, we show that the relationship between volatility in fundamentals and policies and mean growth can be either positive or negative. We identify the curvature of the utility function as a key parameter that determines the sign of the relationship. Quantitatively, we find that when we move from a world of perfect certainty to one with uncertainty that resembles the average uncertainty in a large sample of countries, growth rates increase, but not enough to account for the large differences in mean growth rates observed in the data. However, we find that differences in the curvature of preferences have substantial effects on the estimated variability of stationary objects like the consumption/output ratio and hours worked.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 281.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:281

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Keywords: Business cycles - Econometric models ; Economic development;

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  5. Kehoe, Timothy J & Levine, David K & Romer, Paul M, 1992. "On Characterizing Equilibria of Economies with Externalities and Taxes as Solutions to Optimization Problems," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 43-68, January.
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  6. Becker, Robert A., 1985. "Capital income taxation and perfect foresight," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 147-167, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Jones, Larry E & Manuelli, Rodolfo E & Rossi, Peter E, 1993. "Optimal Taxation in Models of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 485-517, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Zhu, Xiaodong, 1992. "Optimal fiscal policy in a stochastic growth model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 250-289, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Alvarez, Fernando & Stokey, Nancy L., 1998. "Dynamic Programming with Homogeneous Functions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 167-189, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. repec:fth:simfra:93-03 is not listed on IDEAS
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  30. Jones, Larry E. & Manuelli, Rodolfo E., 1997. "The sources of growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 75-114, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  31. Robert J. Barro & Paul Romer, 1993. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr93-1, Summer.
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  34. Sergio T. Rebelo, 1992. "Long Run Policy Analysis and Long Run Growth," NBER Working Papers 3325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  35. Christiano, Lawrence J., 1988. "Why does inventory investment fluctuate so much?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 247-280. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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