Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Fertility, Volatility, and Growth

Contents:

Author Info

  • Aude POMMERET
  • William T. SMITH

Abstract

Empirically, growth rates are negatively correlated with birth rates; they are also correlated with production risk. We argue that these stylized facts are related, and arise jointly from the decision of how many children to have in a risky economic environment.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.hec.unil.ch/deep/textes/04.08.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP in its series Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) with number 04.08.

as in new window
Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: May 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lau:crdeep:04.08

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP, Internef, CH-1015 Lausanne
Phone: ++41 21 692.33.64
Fax: ++41 21 692.33.05
Email:
Web page: http://www.hec.unil.ch/deep/publications/cahiers/series
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: stochastic growth; fertility; volatility;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. TallariniJr., Thomas D., 2000. "Risk-sensitive real business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 507-532, June.
  3. Atkeson, A. & Ogaki, M., 1991. "Wealth-Varying Intertemporal Elasticities of Substitution Evidence from Panel and Aggregate Data," RCER Working Papers 303, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  4. Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Government size and macroeconomic stability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 117-132, January.
  5. Galor, Oded & Weil, David, 1995. "The Gender Gap, Fertility and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1157, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 1994. "Sources of economic growth," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 1-46, June.
  7. Philippe Weil, 1989. "The Equity Premium Puzzle and the Riskfree Rate Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 2829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Normandin, M. & St-Amour, P., 1996. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, Taste Shocks and Equity Premia," Papers 9606, Laval - Recherche en Politique Economique.
  9. Attanasio, Orazio P & Weber, Guglielmo, 1993. "Consumption Growth, the Interest Rate and Aggregation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 631-49, July.
  10. Patrick K. Asea & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1997. "Capital Income Taxation and Risk-Taking in a Small Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 6189, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Jorion, Philippe & Giovannini, Alberto, 1993. "Time-series tests of a non-expected-utility model of asset pricing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1083-1100, June.
  12. Becker, Gary S & Barro, Robert J, 1988. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 1-25, February.
  13. Svensson, L.E.O., 1988. "Portfolio Choice With Non-Expected Utility In Continuous Time," Papers 423, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  14. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 1991. "Policy Uncertainty, Persistence and Growth," NBER Working Papers 3848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April.
  16. Becker, Gary S & Murphy, Kevin M & Tamura, Robert, 1990. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S12-37, October.
  17. Aude Pommeret & Anne Epaulard, 2001. "Recursive Utility, Endogenous Growth, and the Welfare Cost of Volatility," IMF Working Papers 01/5, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Paola Giuliano & Stephen Turnovsky, 2000. "Intertemporal Substitution, Risk Aversion, and Economic Performance in a Stochastically Growing Open Economy," Working Papers 0002, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  19. Eaton, Jonathan, 1981. "Fiscal Policy, Inflation and the Accumulation of Risky Capital," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3), pages 435-45, July.
  20. Robert J. Barro & Gary S. Becker, . "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 88-8, Chicago - Population Research Center.
  21. Attanasio, Orazio P & Weber, Guglielmo, 1989. "Intertemporal Substitution, Risk Aversion and the Euler Equation for Consumption," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 59-73, Supplemen.
  22. Grinols, E-L & Turnovsky, S-J, 1997. "Risk, Optimal Government Finance, and Monetary Policies in a Growing Economy," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 97-10, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  23. Stephen Turnovsky, 1998. "Fiscal Policy, Elastic Labor Supply, and Endogenous Growth," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0068, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  24. Smith, William T., 1996. "Feasibility and transversality conditions for models of portfolio choice with non-expected utility in continuous time," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 123-131, November.
  25. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Volatility and Investment: Interpreting Evidence from Developing Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(262), pages 157-79, May.
  26. Kenc, Turalay, 2004. "Taxation, risk-taking and growth: a continuous-time stochastic general equilibrium analysis with labor-leisure choice," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1511-1539, June.
  27. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1994. "Risk-Taking, Global Diversification, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1310-29, December.
  28. Weil, Philippe, 1990. "Nonexpected Utility in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 29-42, February.
  29. Bufman, Gil & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1990. "Consumption and asset returns under non-expected utility : Some new evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 231-235, November.
  30. Chong K. Yip & Junxi, Zhang, 1996. "Population Growth and Economic Growth: A Reconsideration," Departmental Working Papers _074, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
  31. Santanu Chatterjee & Paola Giuliano & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2004. "Capital Income Taxes and Growth in a Stochastic Economy: A Numerical Analysis of the Role of Risk Aversion and Intertemporal Substitution," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 6(2), pages 277-310, 05.
  32. Corsetti, Giancarlo, 1997. "A portfolio approach to endogenous growth: equilibrium and optimal policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(10), pages 1627-1644, August.
  33. Smith, William & Son, Young Seob, 2005. "Can the desire to conserve our natural resources be self-defeating?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 52-67, January.
  34. Gokan, Yoichi, 2002. "Alternative government financing and stochastic endogenous growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 681-706, April.
  35. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 2000. " Government Policy in a Stochastic Growth Model with Elastic Labor Supply," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 2(4), pages 389-433.
  36. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
  37. Turnovsky, S.J., 1991. "The Impact of terms of Trade Shocks on a Small Open Economy: A Stochastic Analysis," Working Papers 91-19, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  38. Stephen Turnovsky & Pradip Chattopadhyay, 1998. "Volatility and Growth in Developing Economies: Some Numerical Results and Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 0055, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  39. Srinivasan, T. N., 1988. "Population growth and economic development," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 7-28, April.
  40. Robert E. Hall, 1981. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," NBER Working Papers 0720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1997. "International Macroeconomic Dynamics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262201119, December.
  42. Grinols, Earl L. & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1994. "Exchange rate determination and asset prices in a stochastic small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 75-97, February.
  43. Jones, Larry E & Manuelli, Rodolfo E, 1990. "A Convex Model of Equilibrium Growth: Theory and Policy Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 1008-38, October.
  44. Gertler, Mark & Grinols, Earl, 1982. "Monetary randomness and investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 239-258.
  45. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 183-198, March.
  46. Duffie, Darrell & Epstein, Larry G, 1992. "Stochastic Differential Utility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 353-94, March.
  47. Paul M Romer, 1999. "Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2232, David K. Levine.
  48. Tamura, Robert, 1996. "From decay to growth: A demographic transition to economic growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(6-7), pages 1237-1261.
  49. Epstein, Larry G., 1988. "Risk aversion and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 179-192, September.
  50. Duffie, Darrell & Epstein, Larry G, 1992. "Asset Pricing with Stochastic Differential Utility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 411-36.
  51. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2000. "Methods of Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262201232, December.
  52. Epaulard, Anne & Pommeret, Aude, 2003. "Optimally eating a stochastic cake: a recursive utility approach," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 129-139, May.
  53. Schultz, T.P., 1990. "Returns To Women'S Education," Papers 603, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Wälde, Klaus, 2011. "Production technologies in stochastic continuous time models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 616-622, April.
  2. Azomahou, Theophile & Mishra, Tapas, 2009. "Stochastic environmental effects, demographic variation, and economic growth," MERIT Working Papers 016, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  3. Asongu Simplice, 2011. "How would population growth affect investment in the future? Asymmetric panel causality evidence for Africa," Working Papers 11/002, African Governance and Development Institute..
  4. Stephen Turnovsky & William Smith, 2004. "Equilibrium Consumption and Precautionary Savings in a Stochastically Growing Economy," Working Papers UWEC-2006-01-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2004.
  5. George Hondroyiannis, 2010. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 33-50, March.
  6. Simplice A, Asongu, 2011. "Long-term effects of population growth on aggregate investment dynamics: selected country evidence for Africa," MPRA Paper 30128, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lau:crdeep:04.08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudine Delapierre Saudan).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.