Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Welfare Gains from Stabilization in a Stochastically Growing Economy with Idiosyncratic Shocks and Flexible Labor Supply

Contents:

Author Info

  • Marcelo Bianconi
  • Stephen J. Turnovsky

Abstract

Stochastic models with economy-wide shocks imply that the welfare costs of aggregate volatility are negligible. In reality idiosyncratic shocks are important, and empirical evidence suggests that their volatility is several times that of aggregate shocks. This paper introduces both types of shocks. We find that if in the process of eliminating aggregate risk the policymaker can reduce idiosyncratic risk by a modest amount, in accordance with available empirical evidence, the welfare gains from aggregate stabilization can become significant. The introduction of idiosyncratic risk has important implications for asset pricing, and in particular may reduce the risk-free rate substantially, through the precautionary savings motive. Many of our results are sensitive both to the degree of risk aversion, and to the flexibility of labor supply. The paper highlights the tradeoffs involved in analyzing the effects of risk on growth and welfare, on the one hand, and on asset pricing, on the other, clarifying the need to examine these issues within a unified stochastic general equilibrium framework.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.tufts.edu/~mbiancon
File Function: main text
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 with number 277.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf3:277

Contact details of provider:
Email:
Web page: http://comp-econ.org/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Welfare gains; idiosyncratic shocks; labor supply;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith, Jr., 1999. "On the Welfare Effects of Eliminating Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 245-272, January.
  2. Christopher D. Carroll & Miles S. Kimball, 1995. "On the concavity of the consumption function," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Paul M Romer, 1999. "Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2232, David K. Levine.
  4. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
  5. Storesletten, Kjetil & Telmer, Chris & Yaron, Amir, 2002. "Asset pricing with idiosyncratic risk and overlapping generations," Seminar Papers 703, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  6. Andrew Atkeson & Christopher Phelan, 1994. "Reconsidering the Costs of Business Cycles with Incomplete Markets," NBER Working Papers 4719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Zvi Bodie & Robert C. Merton & William F. Samuelson, 1992. "Labor Supply Flexibility and Portfolio Choice in a Life-Cycle Model," NBER Working Papers 3954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. George M. Constantinides & John B. Donaldson & Rajnish Mehra, . "Junior Can't borrow: A New Perspective on the Equity Premium Puzzle."," CRSP working papers 457, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  9. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "The equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 401-421, November.
  10. Campbell, John Y., 1999. "Asset prices, consumption, and the business cycle," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 19, pages 1231-1303 Elsevier.
  11. Pischke, J., 1992. "Individual Income, Incomplete Information, and Aggregate Consumption," Discussion Paper 1992-38, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  12. Marcelo Bianconi, 1999. "Heterogeneity, Efficiency, and Asset Allocation with Endogenous Labor Supply: The Static Case," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 354, Society for Computational Economics.
  13. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1992. "Risk-Taking, Global Diversification, and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 688, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2000. "Precautionary Savings, LifeCycle and Macroeconomics," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0793, Econometric Society.
  15. Constantinides, George M & Duffie, Darrell, 1996. "Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 219-40, April.
  16. Kjetil Storesletten & Chris I. Telmer & Amir Yaron, 2000. "The Welfare Cost of Business Cycles Revisited: Finite Lives and Cyclical Variation in Idiosyncratic Risk," NBER Working Papers 8040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Danthine, J.P. & Donaldson, J.B., 1991. "Methodological and Empirical Issues in Real Business Cycle Theory," Papers fb-_91-11, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
  18. Süleyman Basak, . "On the Fluctuations in Consumption and Market Returns in the Presence of Labor and Human Capital: An Equilibrium Analysis," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 10-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  19. Clark, Kenneth & Leslie, Derek & Symons, Elizabeth, 1994. "The Costs of Recession," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(422), pages 20-36, January.
  20. George M. Constantinides, 2002. "Rational Asset Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1567-1591, 08.
  21. Satyajit Chatterjee & Dean Corbae, 2000. "On the welfare gains of reducing the likelihood of economic crises," Working Paper 0015, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  22. Caballe, Jordi & Santos, Manuel S, 1993. "On Endogenous Growth with Physical and Human Capital," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(6), pages 1042-67, December.
  23. Gadi Barlevy, 2000. "Evaluating the Costs of Business Cycles in Models of Endogenous Growth," Discussion Papers 1287, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  24. Grinols, Earl L & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1998. "Risk, Optimal Government Finance and Monetary Policies in a Growing Economy," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 65(259), pages 401-27, August.
  25. Christopher D. Carroll & Andrew A. Samwick, 1995. "The Nature of Precautionary Wealth," NBER Working Papers 5193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Gary D. Hansen & Randall Wright, 1992. "The labor market in real business cycle theory," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 2-12.
  27. Shmuel Kandel & Robert F. Stambaugh, 1991. "Asset Returns and Intertemporal Preferences," NBER Working Papers 3633, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. George-Marios Angeletos & Laurent E. Calvet, 2001. "Incomplete Markets, Growth, and the Business Cycle," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1910, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  29. Krebs, Tom & Wilson, Bonnie, 2004. "Asset returns in an endogenous growth model with incomplete markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 817-839, January.
  30. Corsetti, Giancarlo, 1997. "A portfolio approach to endogenous growth: equilibrium and optimal policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(10), pages 1627-1644, August.
  31. Lucas, Deborah J., 1994. "Asset pricing with undiversifiable income risk and short sales constraints: Deepening the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 325-341, December.
  32. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
  33. L. Epstein & S. Zin, 2010. "First order risk aversion and the equity premium puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1400, David K. Levine.
  34. Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Government size and macroeconomic stability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 117-132, January.
  35. Beaudry, Paul & Pages, Carmen, 2001. "The cost of business cycles and the stabilization value of unemployment insurance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1545-1572, August.
  36. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-57, August.
  37. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 2000. " Government Policy in a Stochastic Growth Model with Elastic Labor Supply," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 2(4), pages 389-433.
  38. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
  39. Christopher Carroll, 2000. "Requiem For The Representative Consumer? Aggregate Implications Of Microeconomic Consumption Behavior," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 320, Society for Computational Economics.
  40. Deaton, A. & Paxson, C., 1993. "Intertemporal Choice and Inequality," Papers 168, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
  41. Tom Krebs, 2003. "Growth and Welfare Effects of Business Cycles in Economies with Idiosyncratic Human Capital Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 846-868, October.
  42. Meghir, Costas & Pistaferri, Luigi, 2002. "Income Variance Dynamics and Heterogeneity," CEPR Discussion Papers 3632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  43. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March.
  44. Saito, Makoto, 1998. "A simple model of incomplete insurance the case of permanent shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 763-777, May.
  45. Just, Richard E. & Pope, Rulon D., 1978. "Stochastic specification of production functions and economic implications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 67-86, February.
  46. Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah, 1992. "The effects of incomplete insurance markets and trading costs in a consumption-based asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 601-620.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sce:scecf3:277. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.