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Individual Income, Incomplete Information, and Aggregate Consumption

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Author Info
Pischke, Jorn-Steffen

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Abstract

Models of life-cycle consumption are studied in which individuals react optimally to their own income process but have incomplete or no information on economywide variables. Since individual income is less persistent than aggregate income, consumers will react too little to aggregate income variation generating excess smoothness. Since aggregate information is slowly incorporated into consumption, aggregate consumption is correlated with lagged income. Model predictions using estimated income processes qualitatively correspond to empirical findings for aggregate consumption but differ in magnitude. Individual income processes are estimated from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, making various adjustments for measurement error. Copyright 1995 by The Econometric Society.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 63 (1995)
Issue (Month): 4 (July)
Pages: 805-40
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:63:y:1995:i:4:p:805-40

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. John H. Cochrane, 1989. "The Sensitivity of Tests of the Intertemporal Allocation of Consumption to Near-Rational Alternatives," NBER Working Papers 2730, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Altonji, Joseph G & Siow, Aloysius, 1987. "Testing the Response of Consumption to Income Changes with (Noisy) Panel Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 293-328, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  5. MaCurdy, Thomas E., 1982. "The use of time series processes to model the error structure of earnings in a longitudinal data analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 83-114, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1992. "Earnings uncertainty and precautionary saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 307-337, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  8. K. Newey, Whitney, 1985. "Generalized method of moments specification testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 229-256, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 265-79, July.
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  10. Charles R. Nelson, 1987. "A Reappraisal of Recent Tests of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 1687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Campbell, John Y & Deaton, Angus, 1989. "Why Is Consumption So Smooth?," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(3), pages 357-73, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Campbell, John Y, 1987. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1249-73, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Hall, Robert E & Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "The Sensitivity of Consumption to Transitory Income: Estimates from Panel Data on Households," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 461-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Duncan, Greg J & Hill, Daniel H, 1985. "An Investigation of the Extent and Consequences of Measurement Error in Labor-Economic Survey Data," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(4), pages 508-32, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Panel data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1247-1318 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Grossman, Sanford J. & Shiller, Robert J., 1982. "Consumption correlatedness and risk measurement in economies with non-traded assets and heterogeneous information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 195-210, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1981. "A note on Wiener-Kolmogorov prediction formulas for rational expectations models," Staff Report 69, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Runkle, David E., 1991. "Liquidity constraints and the permanent-income hypothesis : Evidence from panel data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 73-98, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Altonji, Joseph & Ashenfelter, Orley, 1980. "Wage Movements and the Labour Market Equilibrium Hypothesis," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(187), pages 217-45, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Sanford J. Grossman & Robert J. Shiller, 1982. "Consumption Correlatedness and Risk Measurement in Economies with Non trade Assets and Heterogeneous Information," NBER Working Papers 0690, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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