Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Risk premia in general equilibrium

Contents:

Author Info

  • Posch, Olaf

Abstract

This paper shows that non-linearities from a neoclassical production function alone can generate time-varying, asymmetric risk premia and predictability over the business cycle. These empirical key features become relevant when we allow for non-normalities in the form of rare disasters. We employ analytical solutions of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, including a novel solution with endogenous labor supply, to obtain closed-form expressions for the risk premium in production economies. In contrast to an endowment economy with constant investment opportunities, the curvature of the consumption function affects the risk premium in production economies through controlling the individual's effective risk aversion.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188911000911
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
Issue (Month): 9 (September)
Pages: 1557-1576

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:35:y:2011:i:9:p:1557-1576

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

Related research

Keywords: Risk premium Continuous-time DSGE Effective risk aversion;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Lettau, M. & Uhlig, H., 1995. "Can Habit Formation be Reconciled with Business Cycle Facts?," Discussion Paper 1995-54, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  2. Stephen Turnovsky & William Smith, 2004. "Equilibrium Consumption and Precautionary Savings in a Stochastically Growing Economy," Working Papers UWEC-2006-01-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2004.
  3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Michele Boldrin & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2001. "Habit Persistence, Asset Returns, and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 149-166, March.
  4. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
  5. Eaton, Jonathan, 1981. "Fiscal Policy, Inflation and the Accumulation of Risky Capital," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3), pages 435-45, July.
  6. Abel, Andrew B., 1999. "Risk premia and term premia in general equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 3-33, February.
  7. Olaf Posch & Timo Trimborn, 2011. "Numerical Solution of Dynamic Equilibrium Models under Poisson Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 3431, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1897, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  9. R. C. Merton, 1970. "Optimum Consumption and Portfolio Rules in a Continuous-time Model," Working papers 58, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  10. Jessica Wachter, 2008. "Can Time-Varying Risk of Rare Disasters Explain Aggregate Stock Market Volatility?," NBER Working Papers 14386, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Christopher D. Carroll & Miles S. Kimball, 1995. "On the Concavity of the Consumption Function," Macroeconomics 9503003, EconWPA.
  12. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
  13. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Koijen, Ralph & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco & van Binsbergen, Jules H., 2010. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a DSGE Model with Recursive Preferences," CEPR Discussion Papers 7781, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Xavier Gabaix, 2008. "Variable Rare Disasters: A Tractable Theory of Ten Puzzles in Macro-finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 64-67, May.
  15. G. Constantinides, 1990. "Habit formation: a resolution of the equity premium puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1397, David K. Levine.
  16. Grinols, E.L. & Turnovsky, S.J., 1992. "Risk, the Financial Market and Macroeconomic Equilibrium," Working Papers 92-01, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  17. Robert J. Barro, 2007. "Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs," NBER Working Papers 13690, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-Order Approximation to the Policy Function," NBER Technical Working Papers 0282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J & Tallarini, Thomas D, Jr, 1999. "Robust Permanent Income and Pricing," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(4), pages 873-907, October.
  20. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1993. "Macroeconomic Policies, Growth, and Welfare in a Stochastic Economy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(4), pages 953-81, November.
  21. John Y. Campbell, 1992. "Inspecting the Mechanism: An Analytical Approach to the Stochastic Growth Model," NBER Working Papers 4188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan Francisco, 2006. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models: A Likelihood Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 5513, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2008. "The Time-Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 604-41, June.
  24. Alessandra Fogli & Laura Veldkamp, 2007. "Nature or Nurture? Learning and Female Labor Force Dynamics," Working Papers 07-12, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  25. Taylor, John B & Uhlig, Harald, 1990. "Solving Nonlinear Stochastic Growth Models: A Comparison of Alternative Solution Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, January.
  26. Wälde, Klaus, 2011. "Production technologies in stochastic continuous time models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 616-622, April.
  27. Eric T. Swanson, 2012. "Risk Aversion and the Labor Margin in Dynamic Equilibrium Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1663-91, June.
  28. Jermann, Urban J., 1998. "Asset pricing in production economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 257-275, April.
  29. Cochrane, John H. & Campbell, John, 1999. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Scholarly Articles 3119444, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  30. Ghosh, Anisha & Julliard, Christian, 2012. "Can Rare Events Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8899, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  31. Klaus, WAELDE, 2003. "Endogenous growth cycles," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2004012, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES), revised 15 Mar 2004.
  32. TallariniJr., Thomas D., 2000. "Risk-sensitive real business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 507-532, June.
  33. Kimball, Miles S, 1990. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 53-73, January.
  34. Merton, Robert C, 1975. "An Asymptotic Theory of Growth under Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 375-93, July.
  35. Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2004. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2412, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jan 2006.
  36. Urban J. Jermann, 2005. "The Equity Premium Implied by Production," 2005 Meeting Papers 630, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  37. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, 08.
  38. Weil, Philippe, 1990. "Nonexpected Utility in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 29-42, February.
  39. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
  40. Veronesi, Pietro, 2004. "The Peso problem hypothesis and stock market returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 707-725, January.
  41. Olaf Posch, 2007. "Structural estimation of jump-diffusion processes in macroeconomics," CREATES Research Papers 2007-23, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  42. Bodie, Zvi & Merton, Robert C. & Samuelson, William F., 1992. "Labor supply flexibility and portfolio choice in a life cycle model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 427-449.
  43. Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July.
  44. Barro, Robert, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," Scholarly Articles 3208215, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  45. Sennewald, Ken, 2007. "Controlled stochastic differential equations under Poisson uncertainty and with unbounded utility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1106-1131, April.
  46. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-84, March.
  47. Turnovsky, Stephen J. & Bianconi, Marcelo, 2005. "Welfare Gains From Stabilization In A Stochastically Growing Economy With Idiosyncratic Shocks And Flexible Labor Supply," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(03), pages 321-357, June.
  48. Steger, Thomas M., 2005. "Stochastic growth under Wiener and Poisson uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 311-316, March.
  49. Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F., 2006. "Solving DSGE models with perturbation methods and a change of variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2509-2531, December.
  50. Corsetti, Giancarlo, 1997. "A portfolio approach to endogenous growth: equilibrium and optimal policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(10), pages 1627-1644, August.
  51. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  52. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2000. "Methods of Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262201232, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Olaf Posch & Timo Trimborn, 2011. "Numerical Solution of Dynamic Equilibrium Models under Poisson Uncertainty," DEGIT Conference Papers c016_044, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  2. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2010. "Global Warming And Extreme Events: Rethinking The Timing And Intensity Of Environmental Policy," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 236, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
  3. Posch, Olaf & Trimborn, Timo, 2010. "Numerical solution of continuous-time DSGE models under Poisson uncertainty," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-450, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  4. Andrew Y. Chen, 2013. "External Habit in a Production Economy," 2013 Papers pch1244, Job Market Papers.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:35:y:2011:i:9:p:1557-1576. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.