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Rational Asset Prices

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Author Info
George M. Constantinides

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Abstract

The mean, co-variability, and predictability of the return of different classes of financial assets challenge the rational economic model for an explanation. The unconditional mean aggregate equity premium is almost seven percent per year and remains high after adjusting downwards the sample mean premium by introducing prior beliefs about the stationarity of the price-dividend ratio and the (non) forecastability of the long-term dividend growth and price-dividend ratio. Recognition that idiosyncratic income shocks are uninsurable and concentrated in recessions contributes toward an explanation. Also borrowing constraints over the investors' life cycle that shift the stock market risk to the saving middle-aged consumers contribute toward an explanation.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8826.

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Date of creation: Mar 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8826

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G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  74. Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2002. "Limited Asset Market Participation and the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 825-853, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Marcelo Bianconi, 2004. "The Welfare Gains from Stabilization in a Stochastically Growing Economy with Idiosyncratic Shocks and Flexible Labor Supply," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0413, Department of Economics, Tufts University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Yu Chen & Thomas Cosimano & Alex Himonas, 2008. "Solving an asset pricing model with hybrid internal and external habits, and autocorrelated Gaussian shocks," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 305-344, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Gonzalo Rubio & Miguel Angel A. Martinez & Belén Nieto, 2003. "Asset pricing and systematic liquidity risk," DFAEII Working Papers 200205, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II. [Downloadable!]
  4. Constantinides, George M. & Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Czerwonko, Michal & Perrakis, Stylianos, 2008. "Are Options on Index Futures Profitable for Risk Averse Investors? Empirical Evidence," MPRA Paper 11644, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Sean Campbell & Canlin Li, 2003. "Per Capita Consumption, Luxury Consumption and the Presidential Puzzle: A Partial Resolution," Working Papers 2003-18, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Qiang Zhang, 2004. "Accounting for Human Capital and Weak Identification in Evaluating the Esptein-Zin-Weil Non-Expected Utility Model of Asset Pricing," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-289, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kevin X.D. Huang & Zheng Liu & Qi Zhu, 2005. "Temptation and Self-Control: Some Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey," Emory Economics 0507, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
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  8. Morris A. Davis & Robert F. Martin, 2005. "Housing, house prices, and the equity premium puzzle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. George M. Constantinides & Anisha Ghosh, 2008. "Asset Pricing Tests with Long Run Risks in Consumption Growth," NBER Working Papers 14543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Rajnish Mehra & Edward C. Prescott, 2003. "The Equity Premium in Retrospect," NBER Working Papers 9525, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Miguel A. Martínez & Belén Nieto & Gonzalo Rubio & Mikel Tapia, 2002. "Asset Pricing And Systematic Liquidity Risk: An Empirical Investigation Of The Spanish Stock Market," Business Economics Working Papers wb026022, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa. [Downloadable!]
  12. Kris Jacobs & Stephane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2004. "Market Incompleteness and the Equity Premium Puzzle: Evidence from State-Level Data," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-54, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Tom Krebs, 2002. "Asset Returns in an Endogenous Growth Model with Incomplete Markets," Working Papers 2002-18, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Kevin X. D. Huang & Zheng Liu & Qi Zhu, 2006. "Temptation and self-control: some evidence and applications," Staff Report 367, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Rajnish Mehra, 2006. "The Equity Premium in India," NBER Working Papers 12434, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Professor George M Constantinides, 2005. "Market Oganization and the prices of financial Assets," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 49, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Livio Stracca & David Fielding, 2003. "Myopic loss aversion; disappointment aversion; and the equity premium puzzle," Working Paper Series 203, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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