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Where is the market going? Uncertain facts and novel theories

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Author Info
John H. Cochrane

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Abstract

The author surveys the statistical evidence on average stock return and the economic theories that try to explain it. The statistical evidence suggests a period of low returns, followed by a slow reversion to a high long-term average. However, that evidence is quite uncertain. Standard economics predicts tiny stock returns. The author surveys new economic models that predict high returns, but by fundamentally changing the description of stock market risk. He warns that a low forecast for stock returns does not mean one should sell.

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File URL: http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economicperspectives/1997/epnovdec97.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its journal Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): (1997)
Issue (Month): Nov ()
Pages: 3-37
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:1997:i:nov:p:3-37:n:v.21no.6

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Keywords: Stocks ; Risk;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  4. Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah J, 1996. "Evaluating the Effects of Incomplete Markets on Risk Sharing and Asset Pricing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 443-87, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Abel, A.B., 1990. "Asset Prices Under Habit Formation And Catching Up With The Joneses," Weiss Center Working Papers 1-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
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  10. N. Gregory Mankiw & Stephen P. Zeldes, 1991. "The Consumption of Stockholders and Non-Stockholders," NBER Working Papers 3402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
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  14. Owen Lamont, 1996. "Earnings and Expected Returns," NBER Working Papers 5671, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Robert J. Shiller, 1982. "Consumption, Asset Markets, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 0838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1986. "The equity premium and the concentration of aggregate shocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 211-219, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  30. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1990. "Expectations and Volatility of Consumption and Asset Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 207-32. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  32. Telmer, Chris I, 1993. " Asset-Pricing Puzzles and Incomplete Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1803-32, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Shiller, Robert J., 1982. "Consumption, asset markets and macroeconomic fluctuations," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 203-238, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Campbell, John Y, 1996. "Understanding Risk and Return," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 298-345, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  35. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  36. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1996. "The Equity Premium: It's Still a Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 42-71, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  37. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1996. "Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 63(4), pages 581-93, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  38. Cochrane, John H., 1991. "Volatility tests and efficient markets : A review essay," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 463-485, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
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