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The Equity Premium Consensus Forecast Revisited

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  • Ivo Welch

    (Yale School of Management)

Abstract

A seller wishes to sell an object to one of multiple bidders. The valuations of the bidders are privately known. We consider the joint design problem in which the seller can decide the accuracy by which bidders learn their valuation and to whom to sell at what price. We establish that optimal information structures in an optimal auction exhibit a number of properties: (i) information structures can be represented by monotone partitions, (ii) the cardinality of each partition is finite, (iii) the partitions are asymmetric across agents. These properties imply that the optimal selling strategy of a seller can be implemented by a sequence of exclusive take-it or leave-it offers.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d13a/d1325.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1325.

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Length: 14 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1325

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Keywords: Equity premium;

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References

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  1. Ivo Welch, 2000. "Views of Financial Economists on the Equity Premium and on Professional Controversies," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm122, Yale School of Management.
  2. John R. Graham & Campbell R. Harvey, 2001. "Expectations of Equity Risk Premia, Volatility and Asymmetry from a Corporate Finance Perspective," NBER Working Papers 8678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2003. "Stock Prices and IPO Waves," NBER Working Papers 9858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Pástor, Luboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2004. "Was There A Nasdaq Bubble in the Late 1990s?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Rui Alpalhao & Paulo Alves, 2005. "The Portuguese equity risk premium: what we know and what we don't know," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 489-498.
  4. Buranavityawut, Nonthipoth & Freeman, Mark C. & Freeman, Nisih, 2006. "Has the equity premium been low for 40 years?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 191-205, August.
  5. Fernandez, Pablo & Aguirreamalloa, Javier & Liechtenstein, Heinrich, 2009. "The equity premium puzzle: High required equity premium, undervaluation and self fulfilling prophecy," IESE Research Papers D/821, IESE Business School.
  6. Georges Prat, 2010. "Equity Risk Premium and Time Horizon : What do the U.S. Secular Data Say ?," EconomiX Working Papers 2010-22, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  7. Ravi Dhar & William Goetzmann, 2005. "Bubble Investors: What Were They Thinking?," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm446, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2006.
  8. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & O'Brien, Martin, 2007. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2007," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20072.
  9. Fernandez, Pablo, 2008. "The equity premium in 100 textbooks," IESE Research Papers D/757, IESE Business School.
  10. Daniel Bergstresser & Mihir A. Desai & Joshua Rauh, 2004. "Earnings Manipulation and Managerial Investment Decisions: Evidence from Sponsored Pension Plans," NBER Working Papers 10543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Fernandez, Pablo, 2009. "Market risk premium used in 2008: A survey of more than a 1,000 professors," IESE Research Papers D/784, IESE Business School.
  12. Fernandez, Pablo, 2009. "Prima de Riesgo del Mercado: Histórica, Esperada, Exigida e Implícita
    [Equity Risk Premium: Historic, Expected, Required and Implied]
    ," MPRA Paper 14221, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Rammerstorfer, Margarethe & Eisl, Roland, 2011. "Carbon capture and storage—Investment strategies for the future?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7103-7111.
  14. John R. Graham & Campbell R. Harvey, 2001. "Expectations of Equity Risk Premia, Volatility and Asymmetry from a Corporate Finance Perspective," NBER Working Papers 8678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. George M. Constantinides, 2002. "Rational Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8826, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Longstaff, Francis & Piazzesi, Monika, 2002. "Corporate Earnings and the Equity Premium," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt3qn115m4, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  17. Huang, Hsu-Huei & Chan, Min-Lee & Huang, I-Hsiang & Chang, Chih-Hsiang, 2011. "Stock price volatility and overreaction in a political crisis: The effects of corporate governance and performance," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-20, January.

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