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The Impact of Terms of Trade Shocks on a Small Open Economy: A Stochastic Analysis

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  • Stephen J. Turnovsky

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of change in the terms of trade on the economic performance of a small economy. Both the effects of unanticipated shocks and changes in the mean and variance of the probability distribution generating these disturbances are discussed. In all cases, the key element determining the response of the economy is the effect on the rate of growth of real wealth, to which all other real quantities are directly tied in equilibrium. Conditions for the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect to hold are discussed. The impact of these changes on economic welfare, as measured by expected discounted utility of the representative agent is also addressed.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3916.

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Date of creation: Nov 1991
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Publication status: published as Journal of International Money and Finance 12, pp. 278-297 (1993).
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3916

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  1. James E. Anderson & John G. Riley, 1973. "International Trade With Fluctuating Prices," UCLA Economics Working Papers 040, UCLA Department of Economics.
  2. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1982. "Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-70, May.
  3. Sandmo, Agnar, 1970. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Saving Decisions," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 353-60, July.
  4. Torsten Persson & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1983. "Current Account Dynamics and the Terms of Trade: Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Two Generations Later," NBER Working Papers 1129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Bean, Charles R, 1986. "The Terms of Trade, Labour Supply and the Current Account," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(380a), pages 38-46, Supplemen.
  6. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1988. "Terms-of-Trade, Factor Intensities and the Current Account in a Life-Cycle Model," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 247-62, April.
  7. Svensson, Lars E O & Razin, Assaf, 1983. "The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 97-125, February.
  8. Partha Sen & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1988. "Deterioration of the Terms of Trade and Capital Accumulation: A Reexamination of the Laursen-Metzler Effect," NBER Working Papers 2616, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Levhari, David & Srinivasan, T N, 1969. "Optimal Savings under Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(106), pages 153-63, April.
  10. Stulz, Rene M., 1988. "Capital mobility and the current account," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 167-180, June.
  11. Svensson, Lars E O, 1984. "Oil Prices, Welfare, and the Trade Balance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 99(4), pages 649-72, November.
  12. Turnovsky, Stephen J & Shalit, Haim & Schmitz, Andrew, 1980. "Consumer's Surplus, Price Instability, and Consumer Welfare," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 135-52, January.
  13. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1974. "Technological and Price Uncertainty in a Ricardian Model of International Trade," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 201-17, April.
  14. Hanoch, Giora, 1977. "Risk Aversion and Consumer Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(2), pages 413-26, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Turnovsky, S., 2000. "Growth in an Open Economy: some Recent Developments," Papers 5, Warwick - Development Economics Research Centre.
  2. Fred Celimene & Gilles Dufrenot & Gisele Mophou & Gaston N'Guerekata, 2013. "Tax evasion,tax corruption and stochastic growth," Documents de Travail 2013-05, CEREGMIA, Université des Antilles et de la Guyane.
  3. Aude POMMERET & William T. SMITH, 2004. "Fertility, Volatility, and Growth," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 04.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  4. Paola Giuliano & Stephen Turnovsky, 2002. "Intertemporal Substitution, Risk Aversion, and Economic Performance in a Stochastically Growing Open Economy," Working Papers UWEC-2002-20-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  5. Minea, Alexandru, 2008. "The Role of Public Spending in the Growth Theory Evolution," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(2), pages 99-120, June.
  6. Eicher, Theo S. & Schubert, Stefan F. & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2008. "Dynamic effects of terms of trade shocks: The impact on debt and growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 876-896, October.
  7. Turnovsky, Stephen J. & Chattopadhyay, Pradip, 2003. "Volatility and growth in developing economies: some numerical results and empirical evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 267-295, March.
  8. Amano, Robert A. & van Norden, Simon, 1995. "Terms of trade and real exchange rates: the Canadian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 83-104, February.

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