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Dynamic effects of terms of trade shocks: The impact on debt and growth

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  • Eicher, Theo S.
  • Schubert, Stefan F.
  • Turnovsky, Stephen J.

Abstract

By specifying borrowing costs to increase with the debt to equity ratio we generate procyclical debt flows in response to terms of trade shocks, consistent with empirical evidence. Since procyclical capital flows attract unsustainably large capital inflows during favorable shocks and force countries to overadjust to adverse shocks, we obtain nonlinear adjustments, involving possible overshooting of the long-run debt level. By linking growth, procyclical debt, and terms of trade shocks, we add a distinctly dynamic component to the "Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect". We also examine the welfare implications of the terms of trade shocks and find substantial impact of even intermediate sized shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 27 (2008)
Issue (Month): 6 (October)
Pages: 876-896

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:27:y:2008:i:6:p:876-896

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pedro de Mendonça, 2013. "Nonlinear Phenomena in a Growing Economy with Convex Adjustment Costs," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2013/05, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  2. Chung, Keunsuk & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2010. "Foreign debt supply in an imperfect international capital market: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 201-223, March.
  3. Jean-Louis Combes & Rasmané OUEDRAOGO, 2014. "How does external debt impact democratization? Evidence from developing countries," Working Papers halshs-00969172, HAL.
  4. Heer, Burkhard & Schubert, Stefan Franz, 2012. "Unemployment and debt dynamics in a highly indebted small open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1392-1413.
  5. Audrey Sallenave, 2010. "Real exchange rate misalignments and economic performance for the G20 countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2010-1, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  6. Piotr Misztal, 2010. "The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect. Theory and Practice in Poland," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 13(38), pages 129-146, December.
  7. SENBETA, Sisay Regassa, 2011. "A small open economy new Keynesian DSGE model for a foreign exchange constrained economy," Working Papers 2011004, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.

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