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The Impact of terms of Trade Shocks on a Small Open Economy: A Stochastic Analysis

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  • Turnovsky, S.J.

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of change in the terms of trade on the economic performance of a small economy. Both the effects of unanticipated shocks and changes in the mean and variance of the probability distribution generating these disturbances are discussed. In all cases, the key element determining the response of the economy is the effect on the rate of growth of real wealth, to which all other real quantities are directly tied in equilibrium. Conditions for the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect to hold are discussed. The impact of these changes on economic welfare, as measured by expected discounted utility of the representative agent is also addressed.
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Suggested Citation

  • Turnovsky, S.J., 1991. "The Impact of terms of Trade Shocks on a Small Open Economy: A Stochastic Analysis," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 91-19, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:washer:91-19
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    1. Hanoch, Giora, 1977. "Risk Aversion and Consumer Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(2), pages 413-426, March.
    2. Sen, Partha & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1989. "Deterioration of the terms of trade and capital accumulation: A re-examination of the Laursen-Metzler effect," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 227-250, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2000. "Growth in an open economy: some recent developments," Working Paper Research 05, National Bank of Belgium.
    2. Giuliano, Paola & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2003. "Intertemporal substitution, risk aversion, and economic performance in a stochastically growing open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 529-556, August.
    3. Célimène, Fred & Dufrénot, Gilles & Mophou, Gisèle & N'Guérékata, Gaston, 2016. "Tax evasion, tax corruption and stochastic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 251-258.
    4. Turnovsky, Stephen J. & Chattopadhyay, Pradip, 2003. "Volatility and growth in developing economies: some numerical results and empirical evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 267-295, March.
    5. Pommeret, Aude & Smith, William T., 2005. "Fertility, volatility, and growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 347-353, June.
    6. Janus, Thorsten & Riera-Crichton, Daniel, 2015. "Economic shocks, civil war and ethnicity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 32-44.
    7. Eicher, Theo S. & Schubert, Stefan F. & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2008. "Dynamic effects of terms of trade shocks: The impact on debt and growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 876-896, October.
    8. Amano, Robert A. & van Norden, Simon, 1995. "Terms of trade and real exchange rates: the Canadian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 83-104, February.
    9. Minea, Alexandru, 2008. "The Role of Public Spending in the Growth Theory Evolution," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(2), pages 99-120, June.
    10. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2019. "Demographic structures, savings, and international capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-1.
    11. Erauskin, Iñaki & Gardeazabal, Javier, 2017. "The terms of trade, the external balance, and the size of the net foreign asset position," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 245-260.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    terms of trade ; investments ; savings;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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