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Time-Series Tests of a Non-Expected-Utility Model of Asset Pricing

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  • Alberto Giovannini
  • Philippe Jorion

Abstract

This paper provides two alternative estimation and testing procedures of a representative-agent model of asset pricing which relies on a particular parametrization of non-expected-utility preferences. The first is based on maximum-likelihood estimates, supplemented with an explicit model of time varying first and second moments (where the time-variation of second moments in modelled with an ARCH-Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroskedastic-process); the second is based on generalized-method-of moments estimates. We perform our tests on a data set that includes monthly observations of rates of return on US stock prices and US consumption of nondurables and services. Our results are directly comparable to a test of the dynamic capital asset pricing model performed by Hansen and Singleton (1983), and to a recent test of the model studied here performed by Epstein and Zin (1989).

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3195.

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Date of creation: Dec 1989
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Publication status: published as European Economic Review, Vol. 37, no. 5 (1993): 1083-1100.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3195

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  1. Constantinides, George M, 1990. "Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 519-43, June.
  2. Epstein, Larry G., 1988. "Risk aversion and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 179-192, September.
  3. repec:fth:harver:1421 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April.
  5. Cumby, Robert E. & Huizinga, John & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1983. "Two-step two-stage least squares estimation in models with rational expectations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 333-355, April.
  6. Breeden, Douglas T & Gibbons, Michael R & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1989. " Empirical Tests of the Consumption-Oriented CAPM," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 231-62, June.
  7. Bergman, Yaacov Z., 1985. "Time preference and capital asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 145-159, March.
  8. Mankiw, N Gregory & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1986. "Risk and Return: Consumption Beta versus Market Beta," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(3), pages 452-59, August.
  9. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  10. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
  11. Kreps, David M & Porteus, Evan L, 1979. "Dynamic Choice Theory and Dynamic Programming," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 91-100, January.
  12. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-57, April.
  13. Giovannini, Alberto & Jorion, Philippe, 1989. " The Time Variation of Risk and Return in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 307-25, June.
  14. Attanasio, Orazio P & Weber, Guglielmo, 1989. "Intertemporal Substitution, Risk Aversion and the Euler Equation for Consumption," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 59-73, Supplemen.
  15. Weil, Philippe, 1990. "Nonexpected Utility in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 29-42, February.
  16. Selden, Larry, 1978. "A New Representation of Preferences over "Certain A Uncertain" Consumption Pairs: The "Ordinal Certainty Equivalent" Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1045-60, September.
  17. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  18. Alberto Giovannini & Philippe Weil, 1989. "Risk Aversion and Intertemporal Substitution in the Capital Asset Pricing Model," NBER Working Papers 2824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Aude Pommeret & Anne Epaulard, 2001. "Recursive Utility, Endogenous Growth, and the Welfare Cost of Volatility," IMF Working Papers 01/5, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Camilo Alvis & Cristian Castrillón, 2013. "Tamaño óptimo del gasto público colombiano: una aproximación desde la teoría del crecimiento endógeno," REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA, UN - RCE - CID.
  3. Campbell, John Y, 1993. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing without Consumption Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 487-512, June.
  4. Taiji Harashima, 2005. "An Estimate of the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution in a Production Economy," Macroeconomics 0508030, EconWPA.
  5. Stephen Satchell & Susan Thorp, 2008. "Scenario Analysis With Recursive Utility: Dynamic Consumption Plans For Charitable Endowments," CAMA Working Papers 2008-03, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  6. Michel Normandin, 2003. "Canadian and U.S. Financial Markets: Testing the International Integration Hypothesis Under Time-Varying Conditional Volatility," Cahiers de recherche 03-08, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
  7. Lee, Wai, 1997. "Covariance risk, consumption risk, and international stock market returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 491-510.
  8. Myung Hoon Yi & Changkyu Choi, 2006. "A GMM test of the precautionary saving hypothesis with nonexpected-utility preferences," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 71-78.
  9. John Y. Campbell, 1993. "Understanding Risk and Return," NBER Working Papers 4554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Michel Normandin, 1999. "The Integration of Financial Markets and the Conduct of Monetary Policies: The Case of Canada and the United States," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 67, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  11. Gordon, Stephen & Samson, Lucie & Carmichael, Benoit, 1995. "Finite-sample inferences about mean-standard deviation bounds for stochastic discount factors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 295-300, September.
  12. Pommeret, Aude & Smith, William T., 2005. "Fertility, volatility, and growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 347-353, June.
  13. Robert R. Bliss & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2001. "Recovering risk aversion from options," Working Paper Series WP-01-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  14. Ni, Shawn & Raymon, Neil, 2004. "Price uncertainty and consumer welfare in an intertemporal setting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 1877-1901, July.

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