Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

How Would Population Growth Affect Investment in the Future? Asymmetric Panel Causality Evidence for Africa

Contents:

Author Info

  • Simplice A. Asongu

Abstract

Our generation is experiencing the greatest demographic transition and Africa is at the center of it. There is mounting concern over rising unemployment and depleting per capita income accruing there-from. We look at the issue in this paper from a long run perspective by examining the nature of the relationship between population growth and a plethora of investment indicators: public, private, foreign and domestic investments. Using asymmetric panels on data spanning from 1977 to 2007, we investigate effects of population growth on investment from Granger causality models. Our findings reveal a long-run positive causal linkage from population growth to only public investment. But for domestic investment, permanent fluctuations in human capital affect changes in other forms of investments. Not unexpected, no significant short-run causal relationship is found. For economic implications, sampled countries should take family planning and birth control policies seriously. Though growth in population may appear not to have an impact on investment in the short spell, in the distant future, it strangles public finances. Therefore measures should be adopted such that, rising unemployment rate resulting from population growth be accommodated by private sector investments. Seemingly, structural adjustments policies implemented by sampled countries have not had the desired investment effects.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/10.1111/j.1467-8268.2013.12010.x
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by African Development Bank in its journal African Development Review.

Volume (Year): 25 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 (03)
Pages: 14-29

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:bla:afrdev:v:25:y:2013:i:1:p:14-29

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Rue Joseph Anoma, 01 BP 1387, Abidjan 01
Phone: (225) 20.44.44
Fax: (225) 21.77.53
Email:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1017-6772
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=1017-6772

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Uma Lele & Kofi Adu‐Nyako, 1991. "Integrated Strategy Approach for Poverty Alleviation: A Paramount Priority for Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, African Development Bank, vol. 3(1), pages 1-29.
  2. Asongu Simplice, 2012. "On the effect of foreign aid on corruption," Working Papers 12/031, African Governance and Development Institute..
  3. Simplice A, Asongu, 2012. "Fighting consumer price inflation in Africa. What do dynamics in money, credit, efficiency and size tell us?," MPRA Paper 41553, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Azomahou, Théophile & Mishra, Tapas, 2008. "Age dynamics and economic growth: Revisiting the nexus in a nonparametric setting," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 67-71, April.
  5. Camarero, Mariam & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2002. "A panel cointegration approach to the estimation of the peseta real exchange rate," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 371-393, September.
  6. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  7. K.E. Vaidyanathan, 1992. "Population Trends, Issues and Implications," African Development Review, African Development Bank, African Development Bank, vol. 4(1), pages 1-32.
  8. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  9. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  10. Tony Johnston, 1992. "Population, Education and Sustainable Development," African Development Review, African Development Bank, African Development Bank, vol. 4(1), pages 201-235.
  11. Thomas Gries & Manfred Kraft & Daniel Meierrieks, 2008. "Linkages between Financial Deepening,Trade Openness and Economic Development: Causality Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers CIE 15, University of Paderborn, CIE Center for International Economics.
  12. Peter Pedroni, 2000. "Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers, Department of Economics, Williams College 2000-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  13. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests in Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers, Department of Economics, Williams College 2001-01, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  14. Asongu Simplice, 2012. "Determinants of Health Professionals’ Migration in Africa," Working Papers 12/009, African Governance and Development Institute..
  15. Pommeret, Aude & Smith, William T., 2005. "Fertility, volatility, and growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 347-353, June.
  16. Simplice A, Asongu, 2012. "The political economy of development assistance: peril to government quality dynamics in Africa," MPRA Paper 36543, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Patrick Ohadike, 1992. "Population, Policy Development and Implementation in Sub‐Saharan Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, African Development Bank, vol. 4(1), pages 273-297.
  18. Reginaldo Pinto Nogueira, 2009. "Is monetary policy really neutral in the long-run? Evidence for some emerging and developed economies," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 2432-2437.
  19. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers, Department of Economics, Williams College 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  20. Ivar Kolstad & Espen Villanger, 2008. "Foreign Direct Investment in the Caribbean," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 26(1), pages 79-89, 01.
  21. Starr, Martha A., 2005. "Does money matter in the CIS? Effects of monetary policy on output and prices," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 441-461, September.
  22. Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2004. "Which Lag Length Selection Criteria Should We Employ?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(33), pages 1-9.
  23. Stein Hansen, 1992. "Population and The Environment," African Development Review, African Development Bank, African Development Bank, vol. 4(1), pages 118-164.
  24. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  25. Simplice A, Asongu, 2012. "The impact of health worker migration on development dynamics: evidence of wealth-effects from Africa," MPRA Paper 38189, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  26. Etienne De Walk & Dominique Meekers, 1992. "The Socio‐Cultural Context of Family and Fertility in Sub‐Saharan Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, African Development Bank, vol. 4(1), pages 33-62.
  27. Simplice A, Asongu, 2012. "Government quality determinants of stock market performance in African countries," MPRA Paper 39631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  28. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2005. "Fertility and output in Europe: new evidence from panel cointegration analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 143-156, March.
  29. P.T. Seya, 1989. "The Population Challenge in Africa and the Prospects for the African Development Bank's Intervention," African Development Review, African Development Bank, African Development Bank, vol. 1(2), pages 30-51.
  30. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
  31. Asongu Simplice, 2012. "Reversed Economics and Inhumanity of Development Assistance in Africa," Working Papers 12/034, African Governance and Development Institute..
  32. Meghnad Desai, 1992. "Population and Poverty in Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, African Development Bank, vol. 4(1), pages 63-78.
  33. Rosenzweig, Mark R, 1990. "Population Growth and Human Capital Investments: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S38-70, October.
  34. Hasan, Mohammad S., 2010. "The long-run relationship between population and per capita income growth in China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 355-372, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:afrdev:v:25:y:2013:i:1:p:14-29. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.