Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

New Empirics of monetary policy dynamics: evidence from the CFA franc zones

Contents:

Author Info

  • Asongu Simplice

    ()
    (Yaoundé/Cameroun)

Abstract

Purpose – A major lesson of the EMU crisis is that serious disequilibria in a monetary union result from arrangements not designed to be robust to a variety of shocks. With the specter of this crisis looming substantially and scarring existing monetary zones, the present study has complemented existing literature by analyzing the effects of monetary policy on economic activity (output and prices) in the CEMAC and UEMOA CFA franc zones. Design/methodology/approach – VARs within the frameworks of VECMs and Granger causality models are used to estimate the long-run and short-run effects respectively. Impulse response functions are further used to assess the tendencies of significant Granger causality findings. A battery of robustness checks are also employed to ensure consistency in the specifications and results. Findings – Hypothesis 1: Monetary policy variables affect prices in the long-run but not in the short-run in the CFA zones (Broadly untrue). This invalidity is more pronounced in CEMAC (relative to all monetary policy variables) than in UEMOA (with regard to financial dynamics of activity and size). Hypothesis 2: Monetary policy variables influence output in the short-term but not in the long-run in the CFA zones. Firstly, the absence of co-integration among real output and the monetary policy variables in both zones confirm the long-term dimension of the hypothesis on the neutrality of money. The validity of its short-run dimension is more relevant in the UEMOA zone (with the exception of overall money supply) than in the CEMAC zone (in which only financial dynamics of ‘financial system efficiency’ and financial activity support the hypothesis). Practical Implications – (1) Compared to the CEMAC region, the UEMOA zone’s monetary authority has more policy instruments for offsetting output shocks but fewer instruments for the management of short-run inflation. (2) The CEMAC region is more inclined to non-traditional policy regimes while the UEMOA zone dances more to the tune of traditional discretionary monetary policy arrangements. A wide range of policy implications are discussed. Inter alia: implications for the long-run neutrality of money and business cycles; implications for credit expansions and inflationary tendencies; implications of the findings to the ongoing debate; country-specific implications and measures of fighting surplus liquidity. Originality/value – By using a plethora of hitherto unemployed financial dynamics (that broadly reflect money supply), we have provided a significant contribution to the empirics of monetary policy. The conclusion of the analysis is a valuable contribution to the scholarly and policy debate on how money matters as an instrument of economic activity in developing countries and monetary unions.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.afridev.org/RePEc/agd/agd-wpaper/New-Empirics-of-monetary-policy-dynamics.-Evidence-from-the-CFA-franc-zones.pdf
File Function: Revised version, 2013
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by African Governance and Development Institute. in its series Working Papers with number 13/016.

as in new window
Length: 43
Date of creation: 14 Jan 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:agd:wpaper:13/016

Contact details of provider:
Email:
Web page: http://www.afridev.org/index.php/en/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Monetary Policy; Banking; Inflation; Output effects; Africa;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Simplice A, Asongu, 2012. "Real and Monetary Policy Convergence: EMU Crisis to the CFA Zone," MPRA Paper 36051, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. R. W. Hafer & Ali M. Kutan, 2002. "Detrending and the Money-Output Link: International Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 159-174, July.
  3. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  4. Simplice A, Asongu, 2012. "A Short-run Schumpeterian Trip to Embryonic African Monetary Zones," MPRA Paper 43190, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Bordo, Michael D & Jeanne, Olivier, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: Does 'Benign Neglect' Make Sense?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 139-64, Summer.
  6. Simplice A., Simplice, 2011. "Why do French civil-law countries have higher levels of financial efficiency?," MPRA Paper 33950, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Sergio L. Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2002. "Global Transmission of Interest Rates: Monetary Independence and Currency Regime," NBER Working Papers 8828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 251-85, May.
  9. Simplice A, Asongu, 2012. "Are Proposed African Monetary Unions Optimal Currency Areas? Real, Monetary and Fiscal Policy Convergence Analysis," MPRA Paper 41552, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Tony Cavoli & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2008. "Policy Focus: Open economy inflation targeting arrangements and monetary policy rules: Application to India," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 1(2), pages 237-251, December.
  11. David Fielding & Anja Shortland, 2005. "Political Violence and Excess Liquidity in Egypt," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 542-557.
  12. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-70, Special I.
  13. Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, . "A panel cointegration approach to the estimation of the peseta real exchange rate," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 01-08, FEDEA.
  14. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E O, 2002. "Money and Inflation in the Euro-Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3392, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Eric M. Leeper & Jennifer E. Roush, 2003. "Putting "M" back in monetary policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 761, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Gries, Thomas & Kraft, Manfred & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2009. "Linkages Between Financial Deepening, Trade Openness, and Economic Development: Causality Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1849-1860, December.
  17. Asongu, Simplice A, 2012. "Correcting inflation with financial dynamic fundamentals: which adjustments matter in Africa?," MPRA Paper 46424, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Apr 2013.
  18. Harold Ngalawa & Nicola Viegi, 2011. "Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in Malawi," Working Papers 217, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  19. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Forecasting Inflation," NBER Working Papers 7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Olekalns, N., 1995. "Some further Evidence on the Long Run Neutrality of Money," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 465, The University of Melbourne.
  21. Simplice A, Asongu, 2012. "African Stock Market Performance Dynamics: A Multidimensional Convergence Assessment," MPRA Paper 36055, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  22. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  23. Bae, Sang-Kun & Ratti, Ronald A., 2000. "Long-run neutrality, high inflation, and bank insolvencies in Argentina and Brazil," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 581-604, December.
  24. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua & Hoffmaister, Alexander, 2000. "The credit crunch in East Asia : what can bank excess liquid assets tell us ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2483, The World Bank.
  25. Alagidede, Paul & Coleman, Simeon & Cuestas, Juan Carlos, 2012. "Inflationary shocks and common economic trends: Implications for West African monetary union membership," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 460-475.
  26. Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2004. "Which Lag Length Selection Criteria Should We Employ?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(33), pages 1-9.
  27. Bernd Hayo, 1999. "Money-output Granger causality revisited: an empirical analysis of EU countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1489-1501.
  28. Georgy Ganev & Krisztina Molnar & Krzysztof Rybinski & Przemyslaw Wozniak, 2002. "Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Centraland Eastern Europe," CASE Network Reports 0052, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  29. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C. John & Ucer, Murat, 1997. "Fiscal imbalances, capital inflows, and the real exchange rate: The case of Turkey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 819-825, April.
  30. Serletis, A & Moustas, Z, 1997. "International Evidence on the Neutrality of Money," Papers 9704, Calgary - Department of Economics.
  31. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  32. E. Murat Ucer & C. John McDermott & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1997. "Fiscal Imbalances, Capital Inflows, and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 97/1, International Monetary Fund.
  33. Mishkin, Frederic S, 2002. "The Role of Output Stabilization in the Conduct of Monetary Policy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 213-27, Summer.
  34. Blinder, Alan S, 1987. "Credit Rationing and Effective Supply Failures," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(386), pages 327-52, June.
  35. Simplice A, Asongu, 2012. "Harmonizing IPRs on Software Piracy: Empirics of Trajectories in Africa," MPRA Paper 42466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  36. Asongu Simplice, 2012. "African Financial Development Dynamics: Big Time Convergence," Working Papers 12/003, African Governance and Development Institute..
  37. Simplice A, Asongu, 2012. "Fighting consumer price inflation in Africa. What do dynamics in money, credit, efficiency and size tell us?," MPRA Paper 41553, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  38. Reginaldo Pinto Nogueira, 2009. "Is monetary policy really neutral in the long-run? Evidence for some emerging and developed economies," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 2432-2437.
  39. Narayan Kishor & John Ssozi, 2010. "Inflation convergence and currency unions: the case of the East African community," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 36-52, April.
  40. Riccardo Cristadoro & Giovanni Veronese, 2011. "Policy Focus: Monetary policy in India: is something amiss?," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 166-190, September.
  41. Gupta, Rangan & Jurgilas, Marius & Kabundi, Alain, 2010. "The effect of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa: A factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 315-323, January.
  42. Olivier Jeanne & Michael D. Bordo, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices," IMF Working Papers 02/225, International Monetary Fund.
  43. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
  44. Saumitra, Bhaduri & Raja, Sethudurai, 2012. "A note on excess money growth and inflation dynamics: evidence from threshold regression," MPRA Paper 38036, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  45. Rudi Dornbusch, 2001. "Fewer Monies, Better Monies," NBER Working Papers 8324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  46. Moosa, Imad A., 1997. "Testing the long-run neutrality of money in a developing economy: the case of India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 139-155, June.
  47. Starr, Martha A., 2005. "Does money matter in the CIS? Effects of monetary policy on output and prices," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 441-461, September.
  48. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  49. Trecroci, Carmine & Vega, Juan Luis, 2000. "The information content of M3 for future inflation," Working Paper Series 0033, European Central Bank.
  50. Paul Levine, 2012. "Policy focus: Monetary policy in an uncertain world: probability models and the design of robust monetary rules," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 70-88, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:agd:wpaper:13/016. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Asongu Simplice).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.