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Growth, cycles, and stabilization policy

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Author Info
Keith Blackburn
Alessandra Pelloni

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Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of the joint determination of growth and business cycles with the view to studying the long-run implications of short-term monetary stabilization policy. The analysis is based on a simple stochastic growth model in which both real and nominal shocks have permanent effects on output due to nominal rigidities (wage contracts) and an endogenous technology (learning-by-doing). It is shown that there is a negative correlation between the mean and variance of output growth irrespective of the source of fluctuations. It is also shown that, in spite of this, there may exist a conflict between short-term stabilization and long-term growth depending on the type of disturbance. Finally, it is shown that, from a welfare perspective, the optimal monetary policy is that policy which maximizes long-run growth to the exclusion of stabilization considerations. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpi012
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Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Oxford Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 57 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 262-282
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Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:57:y:2005:i:2:p:262-282

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Blackburn, Keith, 1999. "Can Stabilisation Policy Reduce Long-Run Growth?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 67-77, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Rankin, Neil, 1994. "Nominal Rigidity and Monetary Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 890, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Smith, R Todd, 1996. "Cyclical Uncertainty, Precautionary Saving and Economic Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 63(251), pages 477-94, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hairault, Jean-Olivier & Portier, Franck, 1993. "Money, New-Keynesian macroeconomics and the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1533-1568, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Martin, Philippe & Ann Rogers, Carol, 2000. "Long-term growth and short-term economic instability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 359-381, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Cho, Jang-Ok & Cooley, Thomas F, 1995. "The Business Cycle with Nominal Contracts," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 13-33, June.
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  9. Philippe Aghion & Gilles Saint-Paul, 1998. "Uncovering Some Causal Relationships Between Productivity Growth and the Structure of Economic Fluctuations: A Tentative Survey," LABOUR, CEIS, Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini and Blackwell Publishing Ltd, vol. 12(2), pages 279-303, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Fatas, Antonio, 2000. "Endogenous growth and stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 107-128, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Dawson, John W. & Stephenson, E. Frank, 1997. "The link between volatility and growth: Evidence from the States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 365-369, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2000. "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Caporale, Tony & McKiernan, Barbara, 1996. "The Relationship between Output Variability and Growth: Evidence from Post War UK Data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(2), pages 229-36, May.
  14. Canton, E., 1996. "Business cycles in a two-sector model of endogenous growth," Discussion Paper 116, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  15. Benassy, Jean-Pascal, 1995. "Money and wage contracts in an optimizing model of the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 303-315, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Pelloni, Alessandra, 1997. "Nominal Shocks, Endogenous Growth and the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(441), pages 467-74, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Aghion, Philippe & Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1991. "On the Virtue of Bad Times: An Analysis of the Interaction between Economic Fluctuations and Productivity Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 578, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Kneller, Richard & Young, Garry, 2001. "Business Cycle Volatility, Uncertainty and Long-Run Growth," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(5), pages 534-52, Special I. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Ennio Stacchetti, 1999. "Technology (and Policy) Shocks in Models of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 7063, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1991. "Technology Commitment and the Cost of Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 3755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. de Hek, Paul A, 1999. "On Endogenous Growth under Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 727-44, August.
  22. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Sorensen, Jan Rose, 1992. " Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in a Wage Bargaining Model," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 94(3), pages 443-55.
  24. Speight, Alan E H, 1999. "UK Output Variability and Growth: Some Further Evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 175-84, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2006. "On stabilisation policy: Are there conflicting implications for growth and welfare?," Discussion Paper Series 2006_19, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Jul 2006. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones & Eswar Prasad, 2004. "How do trade and financial integration affect the relationship between growth and volatility?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Galindev Ragchaasuren, 2005. "On the Effect of Monetary Stabilisation Policy on Long-run Growth (Revised September 2005)," Economics Discussion Papers 587, University of Essex, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Mark Roberts, . "International factor mobility and long-run economic growth," Discussion Papers 09/07, University of Nottingham, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Barbara Annicchiarico & Luisa Corrado & Alessandra Pelloni, 2008. " Long-Term Growth and Short-Term Volatility: The Labour Market Nexus," CDMA Working Paper Series 0806, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Keith Blackburn & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2008. "Human capital accumulation and output growth in a stochastic environment," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 435-452, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2007. "Endogenous volatility, endogenous growth, and large welfare gains from stabilization policies," Working Papers 2006-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  8. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas, 2008. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Performance in the European Union and Implications for the objectives of Monetary Policy," Discussion Paper Series 2008_01, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
  9. Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos, 2008. "Are economic growth and the variability of the business cycle related ? Evidence from five European countries," Discussion Paper Series 2008_17, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Dec 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2009. "Fiscal counter-cyclical rules and their conflicting implications for growth and welfare," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 96(1), pages 1-17, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. K Blackburn & D Varvarigos, 2006. "Human Capital Accumulation in a Stochastic Environment: Some New Results on the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 74, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  12. Galindev, Ragchaasuren, 2007. "Uncertainty, learning and growth," MPRA Paper 7398, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Arato, Hiroki, 2008. "Optimal operational monetary policy rules in an endogenous growth model: a calibrated analysis," MPRA Paper 8547, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Nuno Barrau, Galo, 2008. "Schumpeterian Foundations of Real Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 9430, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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