IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eecrev/v59y2013icp35-62.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertainty about welfare effects of consumption fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Houssa, Romain

Abstract

This paper proposes Bayesian estimates for welfare effects of consumption fluctuations and growth. Annual data from 82 developed and developing countries indicate a large degree of uncertainty as regards point estimates. Moreover, the comparison between the welfare gain from consumption stabilization and the welfare gain from growth yields inconclusive results for many developed and developing countries. These findings suggest the need for caution in drawing policy conclusions from point estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Houssa, Romain, 2013. "Uncertainty about welfare effects of consumption fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 35-62.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:59:y:2013:i:c:p:35-62
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.12.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292112001614
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.12.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
    2. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    3. Tom Krebs, 2004. "Welfare Cost of Business Cycles When Markets Are Incomplete," Working Papers 2004-08, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    4. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1994. "Evaluating risky consumption paths: The role of intertemporal substitutability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 1471-1486, August.
    5. Gadi Barlevy, 2005. "The cost of business cycles and the benefits of stabilization," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 29(Q I), pages 32-49.
    6. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Posterior Odds Testing for a Unit Root with Data-Based Model Selection," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 774-808, August.
    7. Tom Krebs, 2007. "Job Displacement Risk and the Cost of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 664-686, June.
    8. Christopher Otrok & B. Ravikumar & Charles H. Whiteman, 2002. "Evaluating asset-pricing models using the Hansen-Jagannathan bound: a Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 149-174.
    9. Andrew Atkeson & Christopher Phelan, 1994. "Reconsidering the Costs of Business Cycles with Incomplete Markets," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 187-218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Tauchen, George, 1986. "Finite state markov-chain approximations to univariate and vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-181.
    11. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1991. "Real business-cycle theory : Wisdom or whimsy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 607-626, October.
    12. Otrok, Christopher, 2001. "On measuring the welfare cost of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-92, February.
    13. Cooley, Thomas F & Ogaki, Masao, 1996. "A Time Series Analysis of Real Wages, Consumption, and Asset Returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 119-134, March-Apr.
    14. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2005. "Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(si), pages 31-63.
    15. Carol Ann Rogers & Philippe Martin, 1997. "Stabilization Policy, Growth and Learning by Doing," Post-Print hal-03416319, HAL.
    16. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Masao Ogaki & Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 38-71, March.
    18. Stephane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2003. "On the Welfare Cost of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 677-698, May.
    19. Martin, Philippe & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1997. "Stabilization Policy, Learning-by-Doing, and Economic Growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(2), pages 152-166, April.
    20. Gadi Barlevy, 2004. "The Cost of Business Cycles Under Endogenous Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 964-990, September.
    21. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1991. "Asset returns and intertemporal preferences," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 39-71, February.
    23. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-357, April.
    24. Johnson, Simon & Larson, William & Papageorgiou, Chris & Subramanian, Arvind, 2013. "Is newer better? Penn World Table Revisions and their impact on growth estimates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 255-274.
    25. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
    26. Patrick Fracois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2006. "Growth, Cycles And Welfare: A Schumpeterian Perspective," Working Paper 1090, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    27. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Ogaki, Masao, 1992. "Engel's Law and Cointegration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 1027-1046, October.
    29. Stock, James H., 1991. "Confidence intervals for the largest autoregressive root in U.S. macroeconomic time series," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 435-459, December.
    30. TallariniJr., Thomas D., 2000. "Risk-sensitive real business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 507-532, June.
    31. Imrohoruglu, Ayse, 1989. "Cost of Business Cycles with Indivisibilities and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1364-1383, December.
    32. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March.
    33. Unknown, 1986. "Letters," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(4), pages 1-9.
    34. Caballero, Ricardo J & Hammour, Mohamad L, 1994. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1350-1368, December.
    35. Jim Dolmas, 1998. "Risk Preferences and the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(3), pages 646-676, July.
    36. John Geweke, 1991. "Evaluating the accuracy of sampling-based approaches to the calculation of posterior moments," Staff Report 148, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    37. Philippe Aghion & Gilles Saint‐Paul, 1998. "Uncovering Some Causal Relationships Between Productivity Growth and the Structure of Economic Fluctuations: A Tentative Survey," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 12(2), pages 279-303, July.
    38. Aghion, Philippe & Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1998. "VIRTUES OF BAD TIMES Interaction Between Productivity Growth and Economic Fluctuations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(3), pages 322-344, September.
    39. World Bank, 2004. "Strategic Framework for Assistance to Africa : IDA and the Emerging Partnership Model," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15179, December.
    40. Blackburn, Keith, 1999. "Can Stabilisation Policy Reduce Long-Run Growth?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 67-77, January.
    41. Masao Ogaki & Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 38-71, March.
    42. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith, Jr., 1999. "On the Welfare Effects of Eliminating Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 245-272, January.
    43. Tom Krebs, 2007. "Job Displacement Risk and the Cost of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 664-686, June.
    44. Wincoop, Eric van, 1994. "Welfare gains from international risksharing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 175-200, October.
    45. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 251-285, May.
    46. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    47. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1991. "Technology Commitment and the Cost of Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 3755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Romain Houssa & Jolan Mohimont & Chris Otrok, 2019. "A model for international spillovers to emerging markets," Working Paper Research 370, National Bank of Belgium.
    2. Aurland-Bredesen, Kine Josefine, 2021. "The welfare costs of uncertainty: Cross-country evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    3. Francis W. Ahking, 2019. "The Welfare Cost of Business Cycles at the States’ Levels," Working papers 2019-03, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    4. Mohimont, Jolan, 2022. "Welfare effects of business cycles and monetary policies in a small open emerging economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    5. Rohman, Ibrahim Kholilul & Bohlin, Erik, 2014. "Decomposition analysis of the telecommunications sector in Indonesia: What does the cellular era shed light on?," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 248-263.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ricardo Reis, 2009. "The Time-Series Properties of Aggregate Consumption: Implications for the Costs of Fluctuations," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 722-753, June.
    2. Ricardo Reis, 2009. "The Time-Series Properties of Aggregate Consumption: Implications for the Costs of Fluctuations," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 722-753, June.
    3. Kyle Chauvin & David Laibson & Johanna Mollerstrom, 2011. "Asset Bubbles and the Cost of Economic Fluctuations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 233-260, August.
    4. repec:pri:wwseco:dp233 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ensar Yılmaz, 2014. "Welfare Costs of Business Cycles in Turkey," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 195-211, May.
    6. Keith Blackburn & Alessandra Pelloni, 2005. "Growth, cycles, and stabilization policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(2), pages 262-282, April.
    7. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March.
    8. Gadi Barlevy, 2004. "The Cost of Business Cycles and the Benefits of Stabilization: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 10926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Fernando Barros Jr & Francisco L Lima Filho & Diego M Silva, 2017. "The Welfare Cost of Business Cycles for Heterogeneous Consumers: A State-Space Decomposition," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1928-1941.
    10. Christoph Priesmeier & Nikolai Stähler, 2011. "Long Dark Shadows Or Innovative Spirits? The Effects Of (Smoothing) Business Cycles On Economic Growth: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 898-912, December.
    11. Mohimont, Jolan, 2022. "Welfare effects of business cycles and monetary policies in a small open emerging economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    12. Gadi Barlevy, 2004. "The Cost of Business Cycles Under Endogenous Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 964-990, September.
    13. Gadi Barlevy, 2005. "The cost of business cycles and the benefits of stabilization," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 29(Q I), pages 32-49.
    14. Stephane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2002. "The States vs. the states: On the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles in the U.S," Cahiers de recherche du Département des sciences économiques, UQAM 20-17, Université du Québec à Montréal, Département des sciences économiques, revised Oct 2002.
    15. Tervala, Juha, 2021. "Hysteresis and the welfare costs of recessions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 136-144.
    16. Stephane Pallage & Michel Robe, 2000. "Magnitude X on the Richter Scale: Welfare Cost of Business Cycles in Developing Countries," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 124, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    17. Guillén, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho & Issler, João Victor & Franco-Neto, Afonso Arinos de Mello, 2014. "On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century and beyond," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 62-78.
    18. Guillen, Osmani Teixeira Carvalho & Issler, João Victor & Franco Neto, Afonso Arinos de Mello, 2012. "On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 734, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    19. Cho, Daeha & Ma, Eunseong, 2023. "The heterogeneous welfare effects of business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    20. Stéphane Pallage & Michel A. Robe & Catherine Bérubé, 2006. "The Potential of Foreign Aid as Insurance," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(3), pages 1-5.
    21. Jang-Ok Cho & Thomas Cooley & Hyung Seok Kim, 2015. "Business Cycle Uncertainty and Economic Welfare," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(2), pages 185-200, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Growth; Welfare; Bayesian inference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:59:y:2013:i:c:p:35-62. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.