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The States vs. the states: On the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles in the U.S

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Author Info
Stephane Pallage () (Economics Department, UQAM and CIRPEE)
Michel A. Robe () (Kogod School of Business, American University)

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Abstract

Economic fluctuations are much stronger when measured at the state level than they are for the United States as a whole. This observation raises the question of how costly business cycles really are in the United States. Using state-level consumption data, we show that the welfare cost of consumption volatility is in fact very substantial. Indeed, in many U.S. states, the welfare gain from eliminating business cycles can exceed the gain from increasing the long-term growth rate by 1\% forever. Our findings have important implications for some key puzzles in economics and finance.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Université du Québec à Montréal, Département des sciences économiques in its series Cahiers de recherche du Département des sciences économiques, UQAM with number 20-17.

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Length: 23
Date of creation: Aug 2002
Date of revision: Oct 2002
Handle: RePEc:cre:uqamwp:20-17

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Related research
Keywords: Business Cycles; Regional Volatility; Growth; Welfare;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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  1. Canadian Macro Study Group
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  2. Stefano G. Athanasoulis & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Risk Sharing Within The United States: What Do Financial Markets And Fiscal Federalism Accomplish?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 688-698, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Steven J. Davis & Jeremy Nalewaik & Paul Willen, 2000. "On the Gains to International Trade in Risky Financial Assets," NBER Working Papers 7796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Gadi Barlevy, 2003. "The Cost of Business Cycles Under Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 9970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Charlotte Ostergaard & Bent E. Sorensen & Oved Yosha, 2000. "Consumption and aggregate constraints : evidence from U.S. states and Canadian provinces," Research Working Paper RWP 00-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Andrew Atkeson & Christopher Phelan, 1994. "Reconsidering the Costs of Business Cycles with Incomplete Markets," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 187-218 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1995. "Balanced-budget rules, distortionary taxes, and aggregate instability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  11. Glenn Ellison & Edward L. Glaeser, 1994. "Geographic Concentration in U.S. Manufacturing Industries: A Dartboard Approach," NBER Working Papers 4840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1992-1), pages 1-76. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Imrohoruglu, Ayse, 1989. "Cost of Business Cycles with Indivisibilities and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1364-83, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  19. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Justin Wolfers, 2003. "Is Business Cycle Volatility Costly? Evidence from Surveys of Subjective Wellbeing," NBER Working Papers 9619, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Otrok, Christopher, 2001. "On measuring the welfare cost of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-92, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gadi Barlevy, 2005. "The cost of business cycles and the benefits of stabilization," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 32-49. [Downloadable!]
  2. Gadi Barlevy, 2004. "The Cost of Business Cycles and the Benefits of Stabilization: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 10926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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