Confidence Intervals for the Largest Autoresgressive Root in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series
AbstractThis paper provides asymptotic confidence intervals for the largest autoregressive root of a time series when this root is close to one. The intervals are readily constructed either graphically or using tables in the Appendix. When applied to the Nelson-Plosser (1982) data set, the main conclusion is that the confidence intervals typically are wide. The conventional emphasis on testing for whether the largest root equals one fails to convey the substantial sampling variability associated with this measure of persistence.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0105.
Date of creation: May 1991
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Journal of Monetary Economics, 28 (1991) no. 3, pp. 435-450
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Other versions of this item:
- Stock, James H., 1991. "Confidence intervals for the largest autoregressive root in U.S. macroeconomic time series," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 435-459, December.
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