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Drawing Inferences From Statistics Based on Multi-Year Asset Returns

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Author Info
Matthew Richardson
James H. Stock

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Abstract

The possibility of mean reversion in stock prices recently has been examined using statistics based on multi-year returns. Previous researchers have noted difficulties in drawing inferences about these statistics because of poor performance of the usual approximating asymptotic distributions. We therefore develop an alternative asymptotic distribution theory for statistics involving multi-year returns. These distributions differ markedly from those implied by the conventional theory. This alternative theory provides substantially better approximations to the relevant finite-sample distributions. It also leads to empirical inferences much less at odds with the hypothesis of no mean reversion.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3335.

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Date of creation: Apr 1990
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3335

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Stock, James H, 1988. "A Reexamination of Friedman's Consumption Puzzle: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(4), pages 413-14, October.
  2. Kim, Myung Jig & Nelson, Charles R & Startz, Richard, 1991. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices? A Reappraisal of the Empirical Evidence," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(3), pages 515-28, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1989. "Unit roots in real GNP: do we know, and do we care?," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 18, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Stock, James H, 1988. "A Reexamination of Friedman's Consumption Puzzle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(4), pages 401-07, October.
  6. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Huizinga, John, 1987. "An empirical investigation of the long-run behavior of real exchange rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 149-214, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Cochrane, John H. & Sbordone, Argia M., 1988. "Multivariate estimates of the permanent components of GNP and stock prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 255-296. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Pagan, A.R. & Schwert, G.W., 1989. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," Papers 89-02, Rochester, Business - General.
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  11. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 857-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1989. "The size and power of the variance ratio test in finite samples : A Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 203-238, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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