Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Near common factors and confidence regions for present value models

Contents:

Author Info

  • Stephen R. Blough
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    The evidence for excess smoothness of aggregate consumption and excess volatility of stock prices is reexamined, using a method that nests parsimonious trend- and difference-stationary specifications of the forcing processes. The confidence interval for the present value of an innovation to labor income is found to be very wide, so that aggregate consumption may be anything from much too smooth to much too volatile. The confidence interval for the present value of an innovation to dividends is narrower and weakly supports excess volatility in the stock market.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/wp/wp1994/wp94_3.htm
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/wp/wp1994/wp94_3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its series Working Papers with number 94-3.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 1994
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:94-3

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 600 Atlantic Avenue, Boston, Massachusetts 02210
    Phone: 617-973-3397
    Fax: 617-973-4221
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.bos.frb.org/
    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information:
    Email:

    Related research

    Keywords: Econometric models;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1989. "Is consumption too smooth? Long memory and the Deaton paradox," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Yin-Wong Cheung & Francis X. Diebold, 1990. "On maximum-likelihood estimation of the differencing parameter of fractionally integrated noise with unknown mean," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 34, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    3. West, Kenneth D., 1988. "The insensitivity of consumption to news about income," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 17-33, January.
    4. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
    5. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1989. "Long memory and persistence in aggregate output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 189-209, September.
    6. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 857-80, November.
    7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1989. "Unit Roots in Real GNP: Do We Know, and Do We Care?," NBER Working Papers 3130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Cushing, Matthew J & Ackert, Lucy F, 1994. "Interest Rate Innovations and the Volatility of Long-Term Bond Yields," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(2), pages 203-17, May.
    9. Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    10. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
    11. Alan S. Blinder & Angus Deaton, 1985. "The Time Series Consumption Function Revisited," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 465-521.
    12. Marjorie A. Flavin, 1988. "The Excess Smoothness of Consumption: Identification and Interpretation," NBER Working Papers 2807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Dent, Warren & Min, An-Sik, 1978. "A Monte Carlo study of autoregressive integrated moving average processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 23-55, February.
    14. Clark, Peter K., 1988. "Nearly redundant parameters and measures of persistence in economic time series," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 447-461.
    15. Phillips, Peter C B & Park, Joon Y, 1988. "On the Formulation of Wald Tests of Nonlinear Restrictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1065-83, September.
    16. Berndt, Ernst R & Savin, N Eugene, 1977. "Conflict among Criteria for Testing Hypotheses in the Multivariate Linear Regression Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(5), pages 1263-77, July.
    17. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Modeling long-run behavior with the fractional ARIMA model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 277-302, April.
    18. DeJong, David N & Whiteman, Charles H, 1991. "The Temporal Stability of Dividends and Stock Prices: Evidence from the Likelihood Function," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 600-617, June.
    19. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
    20. Ansley, Craig F. & Newbold, Paul, 1980. "Finite sample properties of estimators for autoregressive moving average models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 159-183, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:94-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Catherine Spozio).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.