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Unit roots in macroeconomic time series: a post Keynesian interpretation

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Author Info
Gilberto A. Libanio ()

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Abstract

The theme of unit roots in macroeconomic time series has received a great amount of theoretical and applied research in the last two decades. This paper focuses on the implications of the existence of unit roots for macroeconomic theorizing. It is argued that the presence of unit roots in GNP time series provide support to the general perspective adopted by Keynes and post Keynesians on output and employment fluctuations, on the non-neutrality of money in the long run, and on some economic policy issues.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais in its series Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG with number td233.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cdp:texdis:td233

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Related research
Keywords: time series; unit roots; post Keynesian economics;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
  3. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
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    Other versions:
  5. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 857-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Davidson, Paul, 1991. "Is Probability Theory Relevant for Uncertainty? A Post Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 129-43, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Kregel, J A, 1976. "Economic Methodology in the Face of Uncertainty: The Modelling Methods of Keynes and the Post-Keynesians," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 86(342), pages 209-25, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Kenneth D. West, 1989. "On the Interpretation of Near Random-Walk Behavior in GNP," NBER Working Papers 2364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  15. Amable, Bruno & Henry, Jerome & Lordon, Frederic & Topol, Richard, 1994. "Strong hysteresis versus zero-root dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 43-47. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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