IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ksa/szemle/1398.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Várakozások, bizonytalanság, valószínűség. Értekezés a kockázat számszerűsítésének korlátairól
[Expectations, uncertainty and probability. An assessment of the limits to the quantification of risk]

Author

Listed:
  • Bélyácz, Iván

Abstract

A pénzügyi válság okainak keresésekor minden korábbinál nagyobb súlyt kap a bizonytalanság szerepének vizsgálata. A szerző gondolatmenete a bizonytalanság közgazdaságtani helyzetét tükröző ellentmondásból bontakozik ki: míg egyik oldalról vitathatatlan tény, hogy ez a fogalom a közgazdasági elméletben kulcsszerepet tölt be, másik oldalról, ennek elfogadásán túl, a bizonytalanságnak "nincs helye" a közgazdaságtani formalizált elméleti konstrukciókban. A közgazdaságtani főáramban a kockázat és bizonytalanság közötti megkülönböztetés nem történik meg - inkább a két kategória egybeolvasztására tesznek kísérletet. A szerző a bizonytalanság, a várakozások és a valószínűség kölcsönkapcsolatára épülő elemzését a klasszikus szövegek tanulmányozására alapozza. E cikk tartalmának megismerése után olyan benyomás alakulhat ki, hogy a vizsgált témakörben az elmúlt évszázadban inkább válaszra váró kérdések fogalmazódtak meg, valamint egymásnak feszülő teoretikus értelmezések, mintsem meggyőző válaszok. A szerző szándékosan tartózkodik a posztkeynesianus tan és a racionális várakozások elmélete egymást kizáró igazának minősítésétől, mindazonáltal a gondolatmenet egészét a Keynes által képviselt kétkedés uralja, s nem a racionális várakozások elméleti igazságának elfogadása. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: G32.

Suggested Citation

  • Bélyácz, Iván, 2013. "Várakozások, bizonytalanság, valószínűség. Értekezés a kockázat számszerűsítésének korlátairól [Expectations, uncertainty and probability. An assessment of the limits to the quantification of risk]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 749-780.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1398
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.kszemle.hu/tartalom/letoltes.php?id=1398
    Download Restriction: Registration and subscription. 3-month embargo period to non-subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Donald Mackenzie & Fabian Muniesa & Lucia Siu, 2007. "Do Economists Make Markets? On the Performativity of Economics," Post-Print halshs-00149145, HAL.
    2. Paul Davidson, 1994. "Post Keynesian Macroeconomic Theory," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 124.
    3. Robert Dixon, 1986. "Uncertainty, Unobstructedness, and Power," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 585-590, July.
    4. Shiller, Robert J., 1978. "Rational expectations and the dynamic structure of macroeconomic models : A critical review," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 1-44, January.
    5. Murray Glickman, 1998. "A Post Keynesian Refutation of Modigliani-Miller on Capital Structure," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 20(2), pages 251-274, January.
    6. J.A. Kregel, 1998. "Aspects of a Post Keynesian Theory of Finance," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 111-133, September.
    7. Paul Davidson, 1982. "Rational Expectations: A Fallacious Foundation for Studying Crucial Decision-Making Processes," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 182-198, December.
    8. Paul Davidson, 1996. "Reality and Economic Theory," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 479-508, July.
    9. Murray Glickman, "undated". "Modigliani-Miller On Capital Structure: A Post-Keynesian Critique," Working Papers 9608, University of East London, Department of Economics.
    10. Tony Lawson, 1988. "Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Analysis," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 38-65, September.
    11. Murray Glickman, 1994. "The Concept of Information, Intractable Uncertainty, and the Current State of the "Efficient Markets" Theory: A Post Keynesian View," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 16(3), pages 325-349, April.
    12. Geoffrey Hodgson, 2011. "The Eclipse of the Uncertainty Concept in Mainstream Economics," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 159-176.
    13. J. M. Keynes, 1937. "The General Theory of Employment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 51(2), pages 209-223.
    14. Malcolm Rutherford, 1984. "Rational Expectations and Keynesian Uncertainty: A Critique," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 377-388, March.
    15. Paul Davidson, 1991. "Is Probability Theory Relevant for Uncertainty? A Post Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 129-143, Winter.
    16. Lawson, Tony, 1985. "Uncertainty and Economic Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(380), pages 909-927, December.
    17. Robin Rowley & Omar Hamouda, 1987. "Troublesome Probability and Economics," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 44-64, September.
    18. Kregel, J A, 1976. "Economic Methodology in the Face of Uncertainty: The Modelling Methods of Keynes and the Post-Keynesians," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 86(342), pages 209-225, June.
    19. Bélyácz, Iván, 2010. "Kockázat vagy bizonytalanság?. Elmélettörténeti töredék a régi dilemmáról [Risk or uncertainty?. A fragment of the history of theory on an old dilemma]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 652-665.
    20. Malcolm Rutherford, 1984. "Rational Expectations and Keynesian Uncertainty: A Critique," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 6(3), pages 377-387, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. J. Barkley Rosser, 2001. "Alternative Keynesian and Post Keynesian Perspective on Uncertainty and Expectations," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 545-566, July.
    2. David Dequech, 2008. "Varieties of uncertainty: a survey of the economic literature," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807211223070, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    3. Piero Ferri & Anna Maria Variato, 2007. "Macro Dynamics in a Model with Uncertainty," Working Papers (-2012) 0704, University of Bergamo, Department of Economics.
    4. Michaël Lainé, 2016. "Uncertainty, Probability and Animal Spirit [Incertitude, probabilités et esprits animaux]," Post-Print hal-02942874, HAL.
    5. Fontana, Giuseppe & Gerrard, Bill, 2004. "A Post Keynesian theory of decision making under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 619-637, October.
    6. J. Barkley Rosser, Jr, 2011. "Post Keynesian Perspectives And Complex Ecologic–Economic Dynamics," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 96-121, February.
    7. Alessandro Morselli, 2023. "The Modernity of Keynesian Thinking on Economic Policy from an Institutional Perspective," HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT AND POLICY, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2023(2), pages 67-86.
    8. Herr, Hansjörg, 2013. "An analytical framework for the Post-Keynesian macroeconomic paradigm," IPE Working Papers 23/2013, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    9. Gilberto A. Libanio, 2004. "Unit roots in macroeconomic time series: a post Keynesian interpretation," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td233, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    10. Mark Hayes, 2006. "The Economics of Keynes: A New Guide to The General Theory," Books, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES), number nggt.
    11. Stephen Dunn, 2000. "Fundamental Uncertainty and the Firm in the Long Run," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 419-433.
    12. Franck Bessis & Guillemette de Larquier & John Latsis, 2009. "Are conventions solutions? Contrasting visions of the relationship between convention and uncertainty," Working Papers hal-04140883, HAL.
    13. Jan-Oliver Menz, 2010. "Uncertainty, social norms and consumption theory: Post and New Keynesian approaches," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 125-146.
    14. Marco Crocco, 2002. "The concept of degrees of uncertainty in Keynes, Shackle, and Davidson," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 12(2), pages 11-28, July-Dece.
    15. Bélyácz, Iván, 2010. "Kockázat vagy bizonytalanság?. Elmélettörténeti töredék a régi dilemmáról [Risk or uncertainty?. A fragment of the history of theory on an old dilemma]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 652-665.
    16. Harrison, R. Wes & Ng, Desmond W., 2011. "The Scientific Pluralism of Agribusiness: A Special Issue on Theory and Practice: Forward," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 14(5), pages 1-10, December.
    17. Tony Lawson, 2006. "The nature of heterodox economics," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 30(4), pages 483-505, July.
    18. repec:kap:iaecre:v:16:y:2010:i:3:p:297-310 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Dequech, David, 2006. "The new institutional economics and the theory of behaviour under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 109-131, January.
    20. James Crotty, 2011. "The Realism of Assumptions Does Matter: Why Keynes-Minsky Theory Must Replace Efficient Market Theory as the Guide to Financial Regulation Policy," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2011-05, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    21. Angel Asensio, 2008. "The growing evidence of Keynes's methodology advantage and its consequences within the four macro-markets framework," Post-Print halshs-00189221, HAL.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1398. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Odon Sok (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.kszemle.hu .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.