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The concept of degrees of uncertainty in Keynes, Shackle and Davidson

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  • Marco Crocco

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to discuss and define a concept of Keynesian uncertainty capable of both to comprehend the concept of probable knowledge and admit the existence of degrees of uncertainty. Although the economic literature have been discussed this concept based on the discussion of the weight of argument that comes from Keynes’s theory of probability, we claim that this discussion must include the analysis of the relevance of the evidence. Moreover, we claim that this concept of uncertainty is not incompatible with Shackle’s concept of crucial decision and the understanding of the social reality as a nonergodic process.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Crocco, 2000. "The concept of degrees of uncertainty in Keynes, Shackle and Davidson," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td147, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdp:texdis:td147
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    1. Paul Davidson, 1983. "Rational Expectations: A Fallacious Foundation for Studying Crucial Decision-Making Processes," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 5(2), pages 182-198, January.
    2. G. L. S. Shackle, 1942. "A Theory Of Investment-Decisions," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 0(1), pages 77-94.
    3. Lawson, Tony, 1987. "The Relative/Absolute Nature of Knowledge and Economic Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(388), pages 951-970, December.
    4. Sheila C. Dow & John Hillard (ed.), 1995. "Keynes, Knowledge And Uncertainty," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 148.
    5. Dosi, Giovanni, 1993. "Technological paradigms and technological trajectories : A suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 102-103, April.
    6. Paul Davidson, 1982. "Rational Expectations: A Fallacious Foundation for Studying Crucial Decision-Making Processes," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 182-198, December.
    7. Runde, Jochen, 1990. "Keynesian Uncertainty and the Weight of Arguments," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 275-292, October.
    8. Paul Davidson, 1987. "Sensible Expectations and the Long-Run Non-Neutrality of Money," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 146-153, September.
    9. Tony Lawson, 1988. "Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Analysis," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 38-65, September.
    10. R. M. O’Donnell, 1989. "Keynes: Philosophy, Economics and Politics," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-07027-5.
    11. Lawson, Tony, 1985. "Uncertainty and Economic Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(380), pages 909-927, December.
    12. Sheila C. Dow, 1996. "The Methodology of Macroeconomic Thought," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 933.
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    Cited by:

    1. Adriana Moreira Amado & Marco Flávio da Cunha Resende & Frederico G. Jayme Jr., 2007. "Growth Cycles In Latin America And Developed Countries," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 035, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    2. Hans D. G. Hyun, 2023. "A financial frontier model with bankers' susceptibility under uncertainty," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 94-118, February.
    3. Marco Crocco & Fabiana Santos & Pedro Amaral, 2010. "The Spatial Structure of Financial Development in Brazil," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 181-203.
    4. Marco Flávio da Cunha Resende & Daniela Almeida Raposo Torres, 2008. "National innovation system, competitiveness and economic growth," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td325, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    5. Khan, Haider & Patomäki, Heikki, 2013. "A reconstructive critique of IPE and GPE from a critical scientific realist perspective: An alternative Keynesian-Kaleckian approach," MPRA Paper 49517, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Marco Flávio da Cunha Resende & Daniela Almeida Raposo Torres, 2008. "National Innovation System, Trade Elasticities and Economic Growth," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807211110340, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    7. Adriana Moreira Amado & Marco Flávio da Cunha Resende & Frederico G. Jayme Jr., 2006. "Economic growth cycles in Latin America and developing countries," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td297, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    8. Ekaterina Svetlova & Henk van Elst, 2012. "How is non-knowledge represented in economic theory?," Papers 1209.2204, arXiv.org.
    9. Ricardo Crespo & Daniel Heymann & Pablo Schiaffino, 2015. "Dealing with uncertainty evolving beliefs, rationalizations & the origins of economic crises," Documentos de trabajo del Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política IIEP (UBA-CONICET) 2015-8, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política IIEP (UBA-CONICET).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Post Keynesian economics; uncertainty; Shackle; Keynes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B30 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought: Individuals - - - General
    • B40 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - General
    • B50 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - General

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