On the relationship between keynes´s conception of evidential weight and the ellsberg paradox
AbstractA number of scholars have noted that Ellsberg’s seminal 1961QJE critique of the subjective expected utility model bears certain resemblances to ideas expressed in J. M. Keynes’s earlier 1921 A Treatise on Probability. Ellsberg did not mention Keynes’s work in his article, but did do so in his doctoral dissertation submitted in 1962 and recently published in 2001. This gives rise to a number of interesting questions concerning the relationship between the contributions of the two authors. The present paper, drawing in part on a conversation with Ellsberg, attempts to answer these questions. The main conclusions that emerge are that Ellsberg formulated the ideas advanced in the QJE article before having read, and thus independently of, Keynes’s work, and that, even though he later recognised the importance and originality of Keynes’s work in his PhD dissertation, he did not fully appreciate the constructive part of Keynes’s analysis. 1. Introduction The last twenty years have seen a revival of
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics - University Roma Tre in its series Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' with number 0051.
Date of creation: Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Via Silvio d'Amico 77, - 00145 Rome Italy
Phone: +39 06 57114612
Fax: +39 06 57114771
Web page: http://host.uniroma3.it/dipartimenti/economia/it/
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Feduzi, Alberto, 2007. "On the relationship between Keynes's conception of evidential weight and the Ellsberg paradox," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 545-565, October.
- NEP-ALL-2007-03-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-HIS-2007-03-24 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
- NEP-HPE-2007-03-24 (History & Philosophy of Economics)
- NEP-PKE-2007-03-24 (Post Keynesian Economics)
- NEP-UPT-2007-03-24 (Utility Models & Prospect Theory)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- L. R. Klein, 1951. "The Life of John Maynard Keynes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59, pages 443.
- Kelsey, D., 1990.
"Maxmin Expected Utility and Weight of Evidence,"
216, Australian National University - Department of Economics.
- Paul Dolan & Martin Jones, 2004. "Explaining Attitudes Towards Ambiguity: An Experimental Test Of The Comparative Ignorance Hypothesis," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(3), pages 281-301, 08.
- Anand, Paul, 1991. "The Nature of Rational Choice and The Foundations of Statistics," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 199-216, April.
- Truman F. Bewley, 1986. "Knightian Decision Theory: Part 1," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 807, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kelsey, David & Quiggin, John, 1992.
" Theories of Choice under Ignorance and Uncertainty,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 133-53.
- Quiggin, J. & Kelsey, D., 1991. "Theories of Choice Under Ignorance and Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 91-17, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
- Runde, Jochen, 1994. "Keynesian Uncertainty and Liquidity Preference," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 129-44, April.
- David Schmeidler, 1989.
"Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
7662, David K. Levine.
- Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-87, May.
- Lawson, Tony, 1985. "Uncertainty and Economic Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(380), pages 909-27, December.
- Anderson, Michael A. & Goldsmith, Arthur H., 1997. "Mr. Keynes' theory of investment: Do forward looking expectations and weight really matter?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 547-573, September.
- David Dequech, 2000. "Fundamental Uncertainty and Ambiguity," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 26(1), pages 41-60, Winter.
- Fontana, Giuseppe & Gerrard, Bill, 2004. "A Post Keynesian theory of decision making under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 619-637, October.
- Fox, Craig R & Tversky, Amos, 1995. "Ambiguity Aversion and Comparative Ignorance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 585-603, August.
- Runde, Jochen, 1990. "Keynesian Uncertainty and the Weight of Arguments," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(02), pages 275-292, October.
- Runde, Jochen, 1998. "Clarifying Frank Knight's Discussion of the Meaning of Risk and Uncertainty," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(5), pages 539-46, September.
- Gilboa, Itzhak, 1987. "Expected utility with purely subjective non-additive probabilities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 65-88, February.
- Epstein, Larry G & Wang, Tan, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 283-322, March.
- Daniel Ellsberg, 2000. "Risk, Ambiguity and the Savage Axioms," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7605, David K. Levine.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Telephone for information).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.